Cuban Myths Will Test Obama
To navigate a sensible Cuba policy, Washington needs to separate truths from long-held fictions
DECEMBER 27, 2008 Foreign Relations
By DAVID LUHNOW and JOSé DECORDOBA
When Barack Obama takes the oath of office on Jan. 20, he will become the 11th U.S. president since Fidel Castro came to power on Jan. 1, 1959. Indeed, Fidel was already in charge when Mr. Obama was born. That the Cuban regime has lasted half a century just 90 miles from U.S. shores -- and nearly two decades after the end of the Cold War -- is remarkable. It is a testament to the comandante's political genius, to the cruel effectiveness of totalitarian repression and to Washington's ham-handed approach to the island.
It is also a testament to the power of myths. The Cuban regime survives partly because of the historical narrative that it has sold to the outside world and to its own people. This narrative could be summed up as a David versus Goliath story, with Cuba playing the role of the rock-slinging shepherd and the U.S. that of the heartless giant. Washington feeds this myth by maintaining an economic embargo on Cuba that gives the regime a ready-made excuse as to why the revolution has failed its people.
The U.S. holds its own myths about the Caribbean's largest island, too. Chief among them is the old saw that the embargo gives Washington some leverage over events in Havana. The (rather wishful) thinking is that the U.S. should not unilaterally lift the trade restrictions because it can be an effective tool down the road in prompting the Cuban government to undertake reforms. That, too, is mostly wrong. If anything, many in Cuba believe Fidel Castro and his younger brother, Raúl, are terrified the U.S. will scrap the embargo and take away their best public-relations tool.
Separating truth from fiction could help Mr. Obama navigate a sensible policy toward Cuba, one that can help bring about change on the island. Cuba has a way of becoming an issue for the occupants of the White House whether they like it or not. Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, Carter, Clinton and both Bushes all had to deal with Cuba as an unexpected item on the agenda. That may also be true for Mr. Obama, especially given the likelihood that Fidel Castro will die during Mr. Obama's first term.
THE POWER OF STORIES
In many parts of the world, the story of the Cuban revolution goes like this: Fidel Castro overthrew a U.S.-backed dictatorship that had turned Cuba into a playground for the rich while the majority poor suffered abject poverty.
While there is a grain of truth to that story, much of it is wrong. Like all Latin American countries at the time of the revolution, Cuba had grinding poverty in some areas of the countryside. But relative to the rest of the region, Cuba was one of the most developed countries, with a large middle class and a well-unionized working class. Cuba's infant mortality rate of 32 per 1,000 live births in 1957 was the lowest in Latin America and the 13th-lowest in the world, ahead of France, West Germany and Japan, according to U.N. data. In 1959, 76 out of every 100 Cubans could read and write, the fourth-highest literacy rate in Latin America. (In 2000, Cuba's literacy rate was up to 96%, a statistic often used as evidence of Cuba's advancement under the revolution, but Cuba's high starting point is often overlooked.)
So why did so many Cubans support the revolution? Because most Cubans, rich and poor, despised dictator Fulgencio Batista, who had interrupted Cuban democracy through a military coup in 1952 and ruled with corruption and brutality. The revolution's stated goal was the restoration of democracy.
The U.S., whose decision to end military support for Mr. Batista proved crucial to the success of the revolution, was the second government to recognize the new revolutionary government. Philip Bonsal, the newly appointed U.S. ambassador to Havana, was instructed to seek good relations. But relations quickly soured as Mr. Castro embraced the Soviets and nationalized U.S. and Cuban businesses without compensation.
NO FREEDOMS, BUT FREE HEALTH CARE
Another enduring myth surrounding the Cuban revolution is that despite its failures, it has managed to create health and educational systems that are the envy of the developing world.
To its credit, Cuba's revolutionary government has given free education and health care to everyone. As a result, Cuba has produced more university graduates per capita than virtually any other Latin American nation. One such success story is María Zarragoitía, a 58-year-old professor at the prestigious University of Havana. Her mother was an illiterate Spanish immigrant who worked as a maid before the Revolution.
Unlike most Cubans, Ms. Zarragoitía can travel through academic exchanges and has two children who have studied abroad. She says her son in Mexico, who is studying for a master's degree, feels better prepared than his peers there; however, her niece in France finds she is far behind. "That's really not so surprising," Ms. Zarragoitía says. "France is a first-world country and we are third world."
One question whose answer could be crucial to the future of the country: Will students studying abroad return to Cuba, and to a system whose topsy-turvy economics mean that it's financially much better to be employed as a waiter in a tourist hotel than as a doctor at a hospital or a professor at a university? Teacher salaries are so low that Cuba has a teacher shortage, forcing some schoolchildren to take "tele-classes," where instruction is served up on videotape in a room full of noisy students. "They have a professor on hand in case anyone has any doubts about what we're seeing on the video, but since no one even watches, no one ever has any doubts," says an 18-year-old student named Jessica.
Cuba's health-care system is in the same boat: universal access but very poor quality. Cuban doctors are considered well trained by Latin American standards. Foreigners who come to the island for treatment pay cash and suffer no lack of medicines, but ask any Cuban who has set foot in a hospital and he or she will tell you there are severe shortages of medicines and equipment; hospital patients often have to bring their own sheets. In operating rooms, sutures are in short supply and anesthesia is scarce. Medical care has gotten much worse, Cubans say, partly because as many as 30,000 doctors are working in Venezuela, the island's main economic benefactor.
THE EMBARGO
To explain such shortcomings to its people, the Cuban government has an excellent excuse, provided by Washington: The U.S. trade embargo.
The U.S. trade embargo on Cuba was put in place by the Kennedy administration, not as a tool for regime change, but as punishment for Cuba's expropriating U.S.-owned businesses and drawing closer to Moscow. But in the years since, the embargo has become a substitute for a comprehensive policy towards Cuba.
Cuba's government wages a relentless campaign to convince its own people that the embargo, which the government calls a "blockade," is the cause of their ills. While most Cubans don't believe this myth, some do, as does much of the left in Latin America. "If the embargo is totally taken away, Castro would lose his biggest complaint, and his excuse for Cuba's economic disaster," says Brian Latell, a former CIA Cuba analyst.
The political costs of the embargo for the U.S. are enormous. No single issue poisons the well more for relations with Latin America. Every year, in what has become an embarrassing ritual for the U.S., an overwhelming majority of countries condemn the embargo at the United Nations. In the latest vote last November, the vote was 185-3. Only Israel and Palau joined the U.S.
But change might be hard to come by. Especially since the fall of the Soviet Union, the embargo has fed the myth held by hard-liners in Washington and Miami that squeezing the Castro regime just a bit more would lead the Cuban people to rise up and bring "regime change." As a result, in 1992, 1996 and in 2004, the U.S. tightened sanctions -- to no effect. The current global economic crisis might feed such thinking, as Cuba appears more economically vulnerable than ever.
CHANGE CUBANS CAN BELIEVE IN?
Mr. Obama's election slogan struck a chord not only with American voters, but with many people in Cuba, too. They see a dynamic new U.S. president as their only current hope to improve their lives in some small measure -- especially if he can end a bilateral confrontation that is frozen in Cold War ice.
Hopes for change within Cuba have dimmed in the past year since Raúl Castro, 77, took over the presidency from the ailing Fidel, 82. A few tentative steps toward making life easier for average Cubans, such as allowing Cubans to buy cellphones or to enter hotels previously reserved for foreign tourists, have not led to anything bolder.
The election of Mr. Obama -- a young black man committed to reinventing politics -- poses a major challenge to Cuba. It shatters the myth cultivated by Cuba's ruling clique that the U.S. is a racist, exploitative country. Cuba is a majority black country with few blacks in positions of power.
During his campaign, Mr. Obama promised to loosen some restrictions in U.S. policy towards Cuba, allowing Cuban Americans to send more money to their relatives and visit them with more frequency.
While Raúl Castro has repeatedly said he is ready to talk with Mr. Obama, Fidel, whose thoughts on matters great and small are published every week in Cuba, has cautioned against expecting too much.
Some Latin American diplomats who deal with the Cubans say Havana appears ready to enter a dialogue with the U.S. They point to Raúl's willingness to talk about exchanging five Cubans convicted of spying in the U.S. for political prisoners held in Cuban prisons. While it is difficult to see the U.S. agreeing to such an exchange, there is some room for diplomacy. The U.S. could allow family visits for the five spies, for instance, says one Brazilian diplomat. "I think Obama can make significant gestures at a low cost," he says. Latin Americans expect to see the outline of a new policy towards Cuba by April, when Mr. Obama is scheduled to attend a meeting of hemispheric nations in Trinidad.
But few foresee major moves to lift the embargo. For one thing, Mr. Obama would have to risk considerable political capital to lift the embargo at a time when he has his plate full of major issues. He may have little to gain in return from the Cuban leadership, which until now has been able to muddle through thanks to billions of dollars in aid from Venezuela and credits from Iran, Russia and China.
After half a century of Cuban communism, Cubans may have to wait at least another few years for real change.
—Joel Millman contributed to this article.
Write to David Luhnow at david.luhnow@wsj.com
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