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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (29770)	2/22/2008 8:14:14 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217542

takes years for a mine to be put together risk money is not exactly plentiful s.africa issues will go to 2010+ zimbabwe will go dark soon enough australia cannot ship russia is putin who is bush and cb ilaine's friend so, as i just recommended to my e-mail pen-pals *quote* jay wrote: now that China Coal and Yanzhou and varoius other China coal miners have stopped coal export altogether, and leaving only Shenhua which has had 50% of its export quota cut and could well declare force majeure on export deliveries starting as early as March. the issue is (i) govt dictated increase of inventories by power plants and industry, (ii) logistic jam up the export cuts are mainly happening for customers in india, japan, korea, and the spared souls are in taiwan (good relationship) and so far, philippines (where china grid bought the operating rights for philippine national grid for 25 years) australia cannot deliver, indonesia is as unreliable as ever, and south africa is out of the game end result: supply down, price up; for those with supply, all lovely conclusion: inflation is still in check :0) as to iron ore, i am supposing that the mandarins in beijing are thinking about adding to their stake in rio tinto, and powering forward with deals all around as a longer term solution short term, there simply may not be enough coal to purify all the needed iron suggestion: buycoal, buygold, buyplatinum, buypalladium, squeeze until it hurts, bend until it snaps Rossmann wrote: the Chinese can whine all they want, they'll have to pay whatever BHP and RIO will offer them...they have no choice If they don't whine too much, they'll get off easy, say +70-80%. If they do, there might be be an extra "whine" fee. Prices in 05 (i believe) didn't settle until Sep of that year, retroactive to Apr 1....maybe we will see similar delayed settlement this year. The iron ore and coal producers are in the strongest position EVER. What's interesting is that the Japanese settled first when many thought the Chinese would set the price. Tells you how disorganized the Chinese negotiating teams are (all junior peopel I'm told). Stan wrote Chinese steel mills are trying to reject iron ore price increases -- bloomberg.com Iron ore price increases are large enough to affect the Brazilian exchange rate -- reuters.com Nope, no signs of inflation here Rossmann wrote I just spent some time with the CFO of a mining company who told me the 3 hard commodities in most critical short supply are 1. coking or met coal 2. Manganese 3. iron ore. None of the shortages (esp in coal) can be alleviated anytime soon due to infrastructure bottlenecks, flooded mines in Australia, environmental delays, equipment and skilled manpower shortages. he went on to say the shortages in coal are so dire, steel smelters will have to use thermal coal and low qual coal and that the met coal shortage won't go away for 18 mos to 3 years. India and China will drive demand, unless we get a global depression. Spot met coal prices are at $270-300/t vs $100-120 a month or 2 ago...the contract price last year was $110/t I believe This is why Fording and Arch are +30% in the past month. Also, a lot of the uranium plays are back to 05 or 06 levels.... unquote