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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Real Man who wrote (4486)2/23/2008 5:23:56 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Respond to of 71475
 
Yes it is a systemic crisis at least in what many folks considered a near cash market, and with over 300B it is not small.

bloomberg.com

Auction Debt Succumbs to Bid-Rig Taint as Citi Flees (Update4)

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The collapse of the auction-rate bond market, where state and local governments go to raise cash, demonstrates that regulators are no match for Wall Street.

Hundreds of auctions have failed this month, sending borrowing costs as high as 20 percent because dealers from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Citigroup Inc., UBS AG and Merrill Lynch & Co. stopped using their own capital to support the sales. Regulators, who allowed the manipulation of bids and lack of information to persist even after two probes in the past 15 years, are now watching a $342 billion market evaporate at the expense of taxpayers.


Inadequate disclosure ``may have masked the impact of broker-dealer bidding on rates and liquidity,'' Martha Haines, head of the Securities and Exchange Commission's municipal office, said in an interview. ``The large numbers of recent auction failures, which are reported to have occurred due to a reduction in bidding by broker-dealers, appears to indicate those concerns were well founded.''

Citizens Property Insurance of Tallahassee, Florida, a state-run insurer that protects homeowners against hurricane losses, is a casualty. The rate Citizens pays on a portion of the $4.75 billion in securities it has sold jumped to 15 percent from 5 percent at an auction run by UBS that failed on Feb. 13.

No `Backstop'

``The banks were the backstop,'' said Sharon Binnun, the chief financial officer of Citizens. ``If you had more sell orders than buy orders, they'd pick up the difference and you wouldn't have a failed auction.''


Officials at Goldman, Citigroup, UBS and Merrill declined to comment. All the firms are based in New York, except UBS, which is in Zurich. UBS told its brokers this month that it won't buy bonds that fail to attract enough bidders, and Merrill said it was reducing its purchases.

Auction-rate securities are long-term bonds whose interest resets every seven, 28 or 35 days at bidding run by a dealer who collects a fee of about 25 basis points. Unlike Treasuries or stocks, there is no daily source of information about auction- rate bonds. Issuers have relied on banks to be buyers of last resort when bidders couldn't be found at their auctions.

Since the first of the securities were sold in 1984 for American Express Co., the market has expanded as investors sought the bonds as a higher-yielding alternative to money funds.
...
Liquidity Issue

Wall Street firms, reeling from $146 billion in losses on their debt holdings, became unwilling to commit their own capital to support auctions that don't attract enough bidders.

``It's more a liquidity issue, I don't think there's a concern here about these entities being able to repay their debts,'' said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond-market strategist in New York at Miller Tabak & Co., in an interview today with Bloomberg. ``These auction-rate securities are proving to no longer be viable, and we'll see them diminish in scope and size as we go forward.''

A month ago, it was ``unthinkable'' that the banks wouldn't intervene to support auctions, said Steven Brooks, executive director of the North Carolina State Education Assistance Agency. ``I had certainly hoped and believed that that liquidity was there and was an important part of why this marketplace was good for investors and good for issuers.''

...

`Ugly' Market

From 1984 through 2006, only 13 auctions failed, typically because of changes in the credit of the borrower, according to Moody's Investors Service. There were 31 failures in the second half of 2007, and 32 during a two-week period beginning in January. That compares with more than 480 failures yesterday alone, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank AG, Wilmington Trust Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

``It's ugly,'' said Luis I. Alfaro-Martinez, finance director for the Government Development Bank of Puerto Rico, which saw the rate it pays on $62 million of debt rise to the maximum of 12 percent set out in documents governing the bonds, from 4 percent at a Feb. 12 auction handled by Goldman. ``It's getting uglier.''
...
Unprecedented

``There's never been anything like this,''
said Kevin Shanley, chief financial officer of Summit, New Jersey-based AHS Hospital Corp., which owns two hospitals in northern New Jersey. AHS saw the rate it pays on $60 million of securities rise to 12 percent from 3 percent at auctions last week. ``I won't pay 12 percent for more than one minute without refinancing.''

The rate on $100 million of auction debt sold by Wisconsin to its pension plan jumped to a record 11.5 percent on Feb. 14. Now, the state is considering options that include converting the bonds to other types of debt.

``My pulse is racing,'' said Frank Hoadley, director of capital finance for Wisconsin. The rate ``is obviously very expensive and unacceptable,'' he said.



To: Real Man who wrote (4486)2/23/2008 6:27:26 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Respond to of 71475
 
And here is one of the reasons:

timesonline.co.uk

Whats a few trillions between you and me??

Only the half of it (the other being non monetary costs) represents: 4.285MM average priced mansions (350k apiece).



To: Real Man who wrote (4486)2/24/2008 9:04:09 PM
From: saveslivesbyday  Respond to of 71475
 
"someone big buying a few hundred thousand SP e-minis"

It does give a clue about how the program trading computers work.

Big spikes up and down seem to get notice.



To: Real Man who wrote (4486)2/24/2008 9:38:37 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71475
 
This was an amazing bear raid.

In China, the indices opened high but lost all and are now red or hardly green.
I shorted some US futures (1360, 1788s). I bet this raid is being faded.