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To: Mike McFarland who wrote (222)2/24/2008 6:34:18 PM
From: Mike McFarland  Respond to of 379
 
Just looking for reasons that my shares have been falling--
though they trade at a good discount to cash.

DFA Securities Lending
cfafeeonly.com

Yahoo says 1.34M shares of orxe are held short
quote.yahoo.com

I have no idea whether or not DFA or their microcap fund
would be responsible for moves in orxe, but it does seem
worth poking around.

If I hadn't bought a position last year so much higher,
I'd love that orxe continues to fall. But since I have no
plan to average down (it certainly has crossed my mind
to double down--but that is just too much of a gamble for me
now. In 1999, sure, but not now.) So I would prefer that
the pain stop, now.

Of course I'd would have done well to double down in Ariad
years ago--halving my position at the precise low was exact
wrong thing to do (apparently).

But that was heading into a bubble market. And although
few people probably were counting on the dot com bubble
spreading into biotech, it did finally do exactly that.
These microcap value funds that are falling, and the
stocks like my orxe could head up pretty quick--the
so called V.

Bit I doubt that a frothy market is about to begin now.
My guess is that many biotechs will indeed go away. My
orxe may go away, though they have two years of cash,
eventually they could close up if the DR is not useful.
Many microcap biotechs that I've followed will go away.
Indeed, I have been betting that there will be a long
period of lousy returns for all stock market sectors,
as well as a lousy time for bonds. But what do I know?
Rates are low, bubbles happen. What is there in cash,
something like 3 trillion in money funds? Time will
tell, but since I've no idea, I will continue sit on
the sidelines.