Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (75314)	2/27/2008 8:19:31 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I bet PIMCO is in trouble. It's very difficult to manage that sort of money, beat the indices, and not have gotten caught up in the exotics. My firm manages a sliver of what PIMCO manages and even we have trouble providing 'alpha'. As far as government policy to avert the crisis. First, we're in crisis, second the best way to avert crisis is to implement policies to avoid it in the first place. First order of business is to either abolish the Fed and/or go back to the Gold Standard. There is nothing the government can do which will have an immediate impact. Tighter lending is a cyclical phenomenon and it usually lasts 3-4 years. Lending became restrictive November 2007 so look for banks to be more liberal with their dollars sometime toward Obama's relection campaign. The Berkeley liberal in me would ban guns and have universal healthcare, but that's saved for another debate, another day <g>.

To: mishedlo who wrote (75314)	2/27/2008 9:08:54 AM
From: Sr K	Respond to of 116555

That photo of Bill Gross pimco.com reinforces your comment.

To: mishedlo who wrote (75314)	2/27/2008 10:16:45 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 116555

Bill Gross is just talking his book IMHO. His only ideological committment is to save pig men investors by any means necessary.

To: mishedlo who wrote (75314)	2/27/2008 12:35:10 PM
From: RonMerks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Wheat and Silver leading the deflation breakout today. I wonder with all these rising prices if the Fed will acknowledged that 'deflationary expectations' are well anchored- like 20,000 leagues under the sea well anchored <vbg>. Deflation? Yeah right. Ron

To: mishedlo who wrote (75314)	2/27/2008 2:22:01 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 116555

by the way, you are making quite a name for yourself out there! Saw you quoted three times today

To: mishedlo who wrote (75314)	2/27/2008 7:55:49 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, I've gotta say, it seems like people on this board are under 5 years old. Alternatively they smoked so much pot when they were young, they have lost all their memory brain cells. How can memories be so short? Does anybody not remember the 'criticism' of Greenspan in early 2001 when he started cutting rates amidst a relatively elevated CPI? If not, I suggest you do a Google search of pundits screaming about stagflation. Like him or hate him, he was right because in late 2001 inflation expectations came crashing down. In 2002 we were discussing 'deflation'. For a short period of time, granted, but we were. The SAME thing will happen this time as well except this time the discussion will last a helluva lot longer. Probably starts in earnest within the next 6-12 months with inflation expectations crashing down - along with commodities prices and global growth. Outside the stock market, the greatest short right now is in break-even inflation expectations. The bond market is not stupid and it's certainly smarter than anybody on this board - including you and me. Rather than fighting the trend, I'd rather listen to it. For all the commodities bubble blowers, the future always seems clearest at the end.