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Gold/Mining/Energy : Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (40)	3/2/2008 9:08:50 PM
From: Jim P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82

Hi, Dennis, I listened to the earnings report and read the last 3 annual reports. Talisman took a big hit to present value calculations with the new CEO. They took a little bit of a bath in the 4th Q with dry hole expense and choosing not to book reserves for Asia. Also have lots of potential in non-conventional oil and gas. They mentioned starting to look into tight gas and the Bakken oil play. It looks like thier Carlyle area is a possible Bakken play. I cannot find any info on amount of land they have in the Carlyle area but it looks like that area or maybe the Shaunavon area for Bakken reserves. The CEO made point of saying that the reserve bookings for TLM were not comparable to some other companies indicating that they were very conservative. It is fairly common for a new CEO to load the transition year with as much negatives to make it easier to look good going forward. Do you follow this company close Dennis? Any thoughts? Jim Pype

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (40)	4/14/2008 8:25:03 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82

Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM): Strategic review likely to be positive, though only modestly - Goldman Sachs - April 14, 2008 What's changed We believe that the outcome of Talisman Energy’s current strategic review will be favorable for the company’s longer term growth rate, but ultimately insufficient to spark a significant relative re-rating of Talisman shares versus other E&Ps in the near term. Implications We have conducted a detailed analysis of Talisman Energy’s assets and outlook in advance of the company’s May investor days, where new CEO John Manzoni is expected unveil the initial conclusions from his broad strategic review. We expect Talisman to reduce its capital spending in the North Sea where results have been volatile, pursue additional non-core international and North America asset sales of $2-$3 billion, and increase its focus on natural gas resource plays in North America. Based on our analysis, which includes what we believe is a relatively generous assumption of 250 MMcf/d of new natural gas resource play production by 2012, we expect Talisman’s growth, returns, and free cash flow to improve, but to generally remain below the range of most industry peers. We have updated our EPS estimates and target price for Talisman. Valuation Talisman shares have lagged other E&Ps over the past 2 years and at present trade at a steeply discounted valuation of 3.4x 2009E EV/DACF versus 5.1x for large-cap E&Ps. We continue to rate Talisman Neutral and see 29% upside to our revised $25 12-month DCF based target price (up from $22 previously). We believe Talisman shares can perform well in the context of our bullish commodity outlook and Attractive coverage view for the E&P sector, but we continue to see more favorable risk/reward in our Buy-rated favorites at this time. Key risks Commodity price volatility, drilling results, cost pressures, and government pronouncements are the key risks to our price target.