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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (91935)	3/5/2008 11:34:22 PM
From: THE ANT	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Calm down John,China has the weakest currency in the world and no one worries about them.The US debt is in $.The lower the$ the less debt owed.Once we inflate a certain amount there will be no advantage of going further.Brazil got rid of inflation overnight, but only when it was in the interest of those truely in power.I think the fed would love to have one month of 30% inflation(wages included)as they would then slam on the brakes and not have to worry about people being underwater in their mortgages or banks failing.In the meantime they have to pretend they hate inflation while trying to create it.We live in a world of lies What the public loses they would have lost anyways.GNP growth was excessive as we thought we were wealthier than we were.That is what recessions are for--lose what was never yours in the first place.Next the $ should never have gone up to its peak during the NASDQ bubble.It was never worth that and we got things cheaper than we should have---payback is a temporary $ worth less than it should.Next we the public cheared on a NASDQ bubble and Real Estate bubble that grossly misallocated resources.We spent money based on assets we didn't really have s---w-us.Gread has its counter part-loss.Next during our boom times we gave something like a miserly 0.7% of our GNP to the worlds poor.The Hummer was not popular because most of us hated them-some did check out- .http://fuh2.com/ The developing world will now grow at a faster rate than us and make us feel poor-we should feel warm and fuzzy but we are human arn't we.Next credit for consumption should have never been so cheap Jeremy Grantham says debt does not drive GDP-he is right. So things are just going back where they should have been.They should go more nagative than that ,to pay for misallocation of capital which is a permanent lose,but I figure the part of the loss we pawned on the rest of the world will cover this.After price reset things will do just fine.Pray that gold stays high and that oil doesnt crash or it means no reset of prices,then we can feel sorry for a lot of people

To: John Vosilla who wrote (91935)	3/6/2008 8:58:41 AM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I'm not that worried about a crash, but I do think there is 1 major similarity between then and now - all the banks and brokers have been assimilated. Glass Steagal was designed to keep the banks and the brokers away from one another. The markets started down a slippery slope by turning into financial supermarkets the past 10 years. Companies like MER were giving out interest only loans for their mortgages to their top clients, and things just got out of control from there. Then, the banks started providing warehouse agreements to lot's of companies outside the banking system like ahm, tma, and other mortgage reit's. GMAC even went out and tried to grab a piece of the alt a market. How stupid was that? It became awful for the past 2 years when interest rate spreads became negative. The only place to make profitable loans with decent net interest margins was in the riskier mortgages. Now, the FED is trying to pull everyone back into 30 year fixed mortgages. As the FED goes back and forth, they keep fucking the stability of the mortgage markets. The real estate bubble could have popped on it's own had they left interest rates at 3% back in 2005. They are costing people a bloody fortune by making people play this game of cat and mouse with their most important financial asset. I don't think many people have made any progress with their mortgage over the past few years. Speculation aside, there is only 1 agency to blame for the bad loan cycles that keep erupting - the FED. I wish to God they would get rates down to 2% and leave them there for the next 10 years.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (91935)	3/7/2008 12:14:36 AM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

John,you speak of FDR as a comparison to our current President Bush. In my opinion the two have nothing in common. FDRs administration built lasting infrustructure that paid huge dividends to this nation years later. Bush will be remembered as the head of an administration that nearly Banrupt this country. FDR was a true leader far removed with anything we have today. Outside of that you raise some interesting points. Hope you don't mind me butting in.