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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (107569)	3/8/2008 11:37:12 AM
From: Rocket Red	Respond to of 314090

Well the metals are due for nice correction here so the stocks will correct too. If your talking 100 years from now you might see it from your grave

To: SwampDogg who wrote (107569)	3/8/2008 2:29:04 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 314090

The discovery stocks are never that overheated except classically they are usually more by a percentage in the run up than in the feasibility, with a few late bloomer exceptions where the story has to be dragged out of the drill stroke by stroke. What you have in a PM or mining market is sudden upswoops that help out the juniors but as far as production oriented stocks goes, they are rarely overrated in the long run and then only occasionally individually so. The over balance of the junior spec market will on occasion get away from itself when reawakening and then in time adjust. I see the cycles historically as from between 5 and 7 years. This is clearly evident in the prices of juniors in charts in the old Canadian Mines Handbooks, and the staking records of the districts in Ontario. The mining market does have its downswings, and occasionally they are quite deflating. The late 90's was a case in point. But this is usually related to a soft metals market and strict regulatory regime. The late 60's mid seventies was like that. The difference is mining rides the coattails of markets that reflect realities, work, discovery and production. It is not just a wild spec melee. So we expect its path to reflect sanity and adjustment to metals supply and demand. It is not just a wild Dutch Tulip market that the tech stocks were, with frothing speculative fever and no modus operandi of dollarzin. I could see the justification of the techies if were were populating mars with a robot colony and a tribe of Venusians were paying out in solid Dilithium, but otherwise the tech valuations were pure lunacy. Irrational exuberance at its best. But copper, gold, moly, nickel, iron, Pt, silver and zinc are high for a reason. Venusians speaking exotic tongues like Mandarin have decamped their junks on Western Shores and demanded all our shiny heavy stuff. So far very little delivery and short of buying the country the Venus Mandarins are SOL. Not that they haven't tried. I sometimes think this whole real estate oversupply of credit was engineered by wily Tongs in the backrooms of Shanghai. ("Gajin can't pay house, we buy countly. Then we have metal for leactol, no ploblem".) EC<:-}