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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wonk who wrote (52624)	3/9/2008 12:18:48 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 543106

If they get to run against a candidate with 50%+ negatives coming out of a divisive nomination process, and they know that a certain percentage of enthusiastic new voters will stay home, plus a big slice of independents and moderate Republicans that liked Obama wouldn't touch Hillary under any circumstances, their odds of a 51-52% win are definitely up there. That's why there is such a disconnect in national preference polls and the actual head to heads between McCain and either Obama or Hillary. It's a very dangerous disconnect that a lot of Democratic supporters are discounting right now, incorrectly IMHO.