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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (4872)	3/11/2008 1:13:45 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71454

No, a shallow recession into this Summer/Fall is priced in, but things will get worse than that. We'll get a bad recession. GM and C is not at levels where I'd short them, but not at levels where I'd buy them either -g- Stocks are still cheap relative to bonds, so I don't think a comparison to 2001 sharp drop (that Jesse puts on his site) should be valid. Stocks were way overpriced relative to T-bonds in 2000. Nevertheless, a water torture drop as earnings come down, and a sharper drop if long rates spike. The tech beta darlings (AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, RIMM) have a long way to fall. RIMM is a good short, some banks as well. -g- JPM and C own the Fed, so despite their huge derivative position, I don't think any of these banks is going BK, that despite the gold bugs desire -ggg- You can always compose a shopping list. The bear will end some day, and usually it leaves plenty of buying opportunities. I'd think this wave will end this Summer or Fall. I still wonder if there will be a major WS casualty, such as BEAR, C or MER, or that stuff will not be allowed. In the worst case scenario the banking system will be loaded with bad debt and be insolvent for some time like in Japan, then the bad stuff will last for years.