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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (109053)3/11/2008 12:26:36 PM
From: Think4YourselfRespond to of 306849
 
"this is save the bank time, and i guess we see if the banks go back to lending....it certainly does take care of counter party risk for now"

Agreed. Although I am bullish on financials right here and now, we are clearly in a recession and there is more economic turmoil coming. What the fed action has done is to address the "panic", which should keep events from getting out of hand. Also disagree with those who are saying the fed is in "full panic mode". They are starting with a small program. If it works they say they will expand it. If it doesn't they will try something else. Where is the panic? I don't see any. IF they were doing a 1:1 exchange of treasuries for securities, or they were accepting non prime securities, that would suggest a panic but they are taking a cut on the exchange so the institutions have some skin in the deal.

This actually poses a big problem, at least for me. Shorting willy nilly is no longer a clear "no brainer" in the financials or homebuilders. Research and TA has suddenly become important again.



To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (109053)3/11/2008 12:52:29 PM
From: Think4YourselfRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
I have just had an additional thought on this. The action means the financial institutions suddenly have a mark to market for their securities, and it is likely much higher than what was on their books yesterday. This will effectively minimize the write downs they will have to take and will likely result in much lower writedowns than the market currently expects.

Wonder how long it will take the markets to figure this out.