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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (109189)	3/11/2008 10:00:00 PM
From: stomper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Crap...i hate anime! I still remember the carrion cries well: "this could never happen in the US" "let them fail and get on with it" "how can they protect their banks like that, it's no wonder they are so stagnant" Look at us now, it is flat out embarassing. If i'm not mistaken skull on a spine even chastised them publicly in one of his Humphrey Hawkins.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (109189)	3/12/2008 10:16:02 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Are we turning Japenese? I really think so.... I think I need to better understand your position Patron.. Is it your position that the collateral that backs up most of those mortgages (the real property itself) is destined to collapse to worthlessness? Will it get to the point where banks pay ME to take their burden of foreclosed homes off their hands and they write off the full value of that property? Are we all destined to live in government owned housing (since real-estate seems destined to become worthless)? I sincerely doubt this, but will be happy to hear your explanation. IMO, there a big difference between those mortgage bonds being marked to market as valueless due to lack of bids on them, and the actual value of the underlying property they represent in foreclosure. Even if home values return to the 2000 mean average, that still means a home that is currently valued at 1 million is worth 1/2 million.. (of course someone's on the hook for the other 1/2 million and that will be the banks) But even if the Fed is left holding those bonds, there is implicit value in that Real Estate (and those bonds) once supply/demand forces are equalized again. Also, one other difference between Japan and the US.. our demographics. Has our demographic situation reached a point where 25% of our population will be deceased within 20-25 years (with no replacement)? Japan's (and China's) popuplations are aging rapidly. And unlike the US, they don't have generous immigration policies that assist in maintaining/increasing population levels. Furthermore, even though Japanese people have a tremendous savings rate, they are also the country with the largest per capita national debt (something like 190% of GDP). Our national debt is less than 36% of our GDP. There are 64 countries with a higher national debt to GDP ratio than the US. (Germany and France are 19 and 21 on the list) cia.gov So.. are we turning Japanese? Well.. I dare say the Europeans are way ahead of us in that contest.. Hawk