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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (30310)	3/12/2008 12:12:26 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

OK, I relooked at WLP and UNH. WLP I did not look deeply - the ROE is too low for me to buy it. UNH - the ROE looks nice, but margins are low. So WLP is a definite no-buy, UNH, I am not sure. It dropped a lot since I last looked and it is definitely lower than where Buffett bought it, but still the expected return does not look really hot. The debt is rising too. I would not buy it if it was not a Buffett buy.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (30310)	3/15/2008 4:20:50 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

MLP's Started some MGG and MWE What both have in common is that they are General Partner (MGG) or GP and LP combined (MWE) MGG - General Partner for MPP 5% yield, distributions should grow at 2x of MPP's rate. This should result in 15-20% distribution growth for MGG. MWP - gas midstream MLP. They also own the General Partner (they merged GP into the LP shares in return for an ownership stake) Trades at 12x EV/EBITDA (Y2007). looks like 10%+ growth for a couple of years. markwest.com For whose who don't own General Partner / limited partener shares, the general partner only get's paid once the distributions for the limited Partner reaches a certain thresholds. In the case of MGG/MMP duo, MGG reached the 50% threshold and now get's paid 50% of the incremental cash flow of the entity (IDR rights). This results in MGG have approx. 2x MMP's the distribution growth. of course MGG's downside is that it's yield is currently lower, but if things continue the way they have in the past that should change in 2-3 years. Most GP units have not done well. Obviously a deceleration in growth hurts the GP much more so than the LP. So for there has not been a growth deceleration in cash flow growth although the current credit crunch could impact the ability to obtain financing. The above mentioned MLP's however have below average debt loads,a good interest coverage (3x+) and a stable cash flow, which should work to their advantage. I like the pipelines (especially the gassy ones) as recession & inflation plays. Pipelines have a large moat (mostly), stable and inflation adjusted income and profit from higher energy pricing, since they are the cheapest mode of transport. Also inflation makes the pipelines that are already build more valuable. Of course right now the market has a different opinion.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (30310)	4/22/2008 1:43:23 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78704

BJS results today are not very good. You were right to sell some BJS and I should have done the same pre-earnings. Now, I think I will hold, but probably sell if it runs up again. Not buying more. At least not at this price.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (30310)	4/23/2008 1:11:18 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

UNH and WLP. UNH had their moment of truth today. i used it to do some more housekeeping today and realized a ST tax loss by selling WLP and purchasing UNH instead. Not that the one is any better than the other necessarily but taking a substantial tax loss if you can purchase something similar is almost always a good idea. I intend to add to my HMO holding UNH and WLP - right now i own about equal amounts of both. i do not see much reason to buy AET or HUM or any other HMO since I believe that sticking with the largest companies UNH and WLP will pay offf LT.