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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (109333)	3/12/2008 2:09:33 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

'Inflation may be good for stocks on a nominal basis, but dollar devaluation has kicked the S&P's ASS this entire decade with more in store' I can't help but wonder how bad it would be if long term rates were properly priced.. Have you checked the yield curve lately in places like India or Brazil? Our dollar might not be able to decline much further only because much of the rest of the world needs to cut aggressively.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (109333)	3/12/2008 3:29:12 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

This is precisely what the Japs did 1990-2000, and it's the main reason their downturn stretched out into the decades. I thought it was because the Japanese were unwilling to write off bad debt That doesn't seem to be the case in our situation.. I think we're facing more of a scenario where those bad debts will be written off over time.. It's just that doing it all at one time would be extremely disruptive to the overall economy. I think this was why we saw Bernanke pressuring Banks to forgive debt as the means to clean up their balance sheets. Bernanke seems to have some fair research on Japan's experience, so hopefully he's drawn some lessons from what they have gone through. I once read a good book on Japan, which I would recommend. Richard Koo's "Balance Sheet Recession". Not sure I agree with all of his ideas (being one of the "unwashed masses"), but it was very informative: japanreview.net Hawk