Obama Looks to Elevate
Contests After Pennsylvania
By NICK TIMIRAOS
March 15, 2008; Page A4
Pennsylvania's primary is more than a month away, but Sen. Barack Obama already is tamping down expectations for the Keystone State and building support for contests that follow.
The Democratic presidential hopeful has made just one stop in the Keystone State this month, touring a wind-turbine factory this week and addressing a small, invitation-only crowd. On Saturday, the Illinois senator travels to Indiana, which doesn't vote until May 6.
The strategy illustrates a shift from earlier in the race, when the Obama campaign boasted it could win anywhere if only it had enough time. "The more people know me, the better I do," Sen. Obama said after his win in South Carolina in January.
His rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, has campaigned heavily in Pennsylvania this past week, and is continuing to press for votes in the state. On Friday, she spoke on energy at a Pittsburgh gas station, and is scheduled to attend St. Patrick's Day parades this weekend in Pittsburgh and Scranton. Polls show her leading Sen. Obama by six to 19 percentage points in the state.
At the same time that the Obama camp is trying to lower expectations about its showing in Pennsylvania, it is trying to elevate the importance of the contests that follow. "I think that if the media is following us, they won't just be fixed on Pennsylvania, because we're going to be traveling all over the country," says David Axelrod, Sen. Obama's top strategist.
Sen. Clinton has several advantages in the state. The demographics in western Pennsylvania are similar to those of Ohio, and in the east, they are similar to New Jersey -- states Sen. Clinton won with 54-44 margins. Sen. Clinton has done well with two constituencies that Pennsylvania has in abundance: older voters and white, blue-collar workers. She also has sewn up endorsements from the state's popular governor, Ed Rendell, and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter.
The Clinton campaign says it plans to open at least 20 offices with around 200 paid staff in the state, compared with 15 to 20 offices and 150 paid staff for the Obama campaign. In recent days, Clinton supporters have tried to portray Sen. Obama as disrespecting the state by not immediately waging an aggressive campaign there, and suggesting that winning Pennsylvania, a swing state, would demonstrate that Sen. Clinton would be a stronger candidate than Sen. Obama in the general election.
On Thursday, Sen. Obama rejected the idea that the campaign wouldn't compete aggressively in the state. "I will spend a lot of days in Pennsylvania," he told reporters. "When you start 20 points down, that means you've got a lot of work to do." Meanwhile, his campaign is encouraging voters who aren't registered as Democrats to join the party by March 24 in order to vote in the state's primary.
In addition to Indiana, Sen. Obama will visit North Carolina in the coming weeks. Indiana and North Carolina have primaries on May 6 with 187 delegates at stake, compared with 158 delegates up for grabs on April 22 in Pennsylvania. Sen. Obama led Sen. Clinton with 1,602 to 1,497 delegates as of Friday; about 2,025 are needed to win the nomination.
• The News: Sen. Obama is tamping down expectations for Pennsylvania's April 22 primary and building support for contests that follow.
• Background: Sen. Hillary Clinton has done well with two constituencies the Keystone State has in abundance: older voters and white, blue-collar workers.
• Strategy: The Obama camp is trying to elevate the importance of the state contests that follow Pennsylvania.The big wild card, of course, is what Democrats decide to do about Michigan and Florida. Sen. Clinton won both contests, but the national Democratic Party has refused to seat the states' 366 delegates at its August convention in Denver, because the early dates for the contests violated party rules. Michigan Democrats appear to be close to a deal to allow a revote, but the situation in both states is far from clear.
Indiana could shape up as a key battleground for the nomination. The Obama campaign put paid staffers in the state this week, and part of the state sits within the Chicago media market that closely follows Sen. Obama. The Clinton campaign will send staff into the state this weekend, including operatives who helped run the campaign's successful efforts in Ohio and Nevada. Sen. Clinton has been endorsed by Sen. Evan Bayh, the state's one Democratic senator and its former governor.
The North Carolina contest favors Sen. Obama because of the state's large number of African-American, white-collar and urban voters, but Sen. Clinton could be competitive in rural areas with more blue-collar workers.
Of the remaining primaries, Sen. Clinton is favored in Kentucky on May 13, West Virginia on May 20 and Puerto Rico on June 1. Oregon's May 20 contest could be close, while contests in South Dakota and Montana on June 3 favor Sen. Obama. "We plan to wage a very aggressive grass-roots campaign across each of those states," says Clinton spokesman Isaac Baker.
Both candidates have agreed to debate in Philadelphia next month ahead of the primary, and Sen. Obama has agreed to a North Carolina debate, which would be the 22nd time that the two candidates have debated during the current campaign.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com |
