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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DELT1970 who wrote (97948)	3/13/2008 9:00:53 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206334

Delt, Baseline (BOGA) -- Yes that sounds about right if I recall correctly. Bottom line to me though is that the lowest price at which the notes are convertible is $.44, so the stock would have to appreciate by about 50% from its current quote before the dilution becomes an issue. Until that point occurs I am thinking of those notes as if they were just straight debt. Great to see the increase in reserves that was announced today. It looks like my fears of their being a reserve writedown were unfounded. Once they put out 4Q earnings numbers it will be apparent if they have blown any debt covenants, which seems unlikely at this point.

To: DELT1970 who wrote (97948)	4/15/2008 8:21:29 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206334

delt, Baseline Oil & Gas (BOGA) -- note the recent rally on huge volume (relatively speaking of course). Looks like someone is finally buying the story. It is quite an intriguing one, they bought 2 properties last year, one oilfield (Stephens County) for $27 M and one gas field (Blessing County) for $97 M. The year-end PV10 values of the former came in at $127 M and the latter (using something like $7.50 gas prices) at $157 M. Most of this increase is due to the rise in commodity prices, but as they say its better to be lucky than smart! Actually they are more than lucky. Based on comments in their 10K plus recent PR's it appears that they were able to ramp up production by about 12% in 1Q vs. the prior quarter. I expect them to be able to increase production at that sort of pace for at least the next 3 quarters. This rate of increase would not result in them achieving their goal of doubling production this year vs. last year, but it still would be quite an achievement and I would be surprised if the stock is trading anywhere near the current quote in that event.