To: TobagoJack who wrote (30906 ) 3/14/2008 4:36:59 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 217656 TJ, how long for the GCC to unpeg? More Talk of Abandoning Dollar Pegs Posted by David Gaffen The dollar is weakening today, in part because of more chatter out of the Gulf States, where more nations are contemplating the end of their fixed-rate currency policies. While these states have benefited from a massive influx of money through oil sales, the dollar pegs have contributed to high inflation in those countries, and increased trade with euro-zone countries only exacerbates this problem. Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum, finance minister of the United Arab Emirates, told Zawya Dow Jones that the country is studying whether to maintain its policy of pegging the dirham to the dollar, currently set at 3.67. “The fact is, this has been very painful for the GCC countries,” says Monica Malik, chief economist at EFG-Hermes Holding in Dubai. “These economies have high interest rates and the pegs are not working anymore.” Inflation rates in the major Gulf countries are exceedingly high, notes Stephen Jen, economist at Morgan Stanley. Inflation is above 14% in Qatar, above 10% in the UAE, and above 7% in Saudi Arabia. The pegs exacerbate inflation as the dollar weakens, and the UAE has responded of late by instituting price controls, which of course hurt businesses selling goods, and burdens the government in turn. “The key is, how long will the government give a handout to the public at the expense of this unsustainable currency regime?” says Ashraf Laidi, chief forex strategist at CMC Markets. “Not only is this becoming increasingly futile, but it’s also dangerous for purchasing power.” The dollar has fallen against other major currencies today. The euro is up to $1.5451 from $1.5316 yesterday and the dollar is at 102.64 yen from 103.41 yen. Ms. Malik says Qatar and the UAE are the two countries most likely to abandon their pegs in the future.