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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (79752)3/15/2008 2:05:41 PM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 94695
 
I bought GM in the teens this week. -g- Prepared to average
in. Thinking of buying F as well. I won't touch financials
at this point, but if C drops into single digits, I'll have
a toe into it. Would not buy BSC -g-



To: robert b furman who wrote (79752)3/15/2008 5:56:30 PM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 94695
 
Here is a post on swaps. Was that BSC?
Message 24303449

"Unlike in equities where traders would often employ house
cleaning activities, the swap books are usually a mess and a
mountain of swaps built up over time." Gulp! Gulp! Gulp! That's
"only" 400 Trillion notional!

And, credit swaps are mostly floating to fixed, and libor
is misbehaving, per TED spread.

bloomberg.com

TED spread this high has not been seen since 1987 crash.



To: robert b furman who wrote (79752)3/16/2008 5:32:05 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
GM trading almost at 1982/1974 bottom. Isn't this stunning? Like
Nissan in 1999. Regret I did not buy their (nissan) stock then, but
I bot their car. Now I'm buying GM car and I bot GM stock.
Rebates and credits abound. Just averaging into GM, chart
does not look good, but the value is. The more the buckie
drops against Yen, the better off GM will be.-g- There is
that risk of BK, but I don't think BK will happen to GM,
especially after they got rid of GMAC. Negative stuff on
their balance sheet that hit this Fall is pension liability, can be
postponed, and definitely NOT new. -g- F now produces Volvo,
that used to be a nice vehicle, maybe not anymore -g-




To: robert b furman who wrote (79752)3/16/2008 5:57:10 AM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 94695
 
I definitely would not touch the banking sector, just for a
trade. The credit bubble has collapsed, we'll see some
stunning values - and stunning RISK some time down the road.
More crap will come out, and quite a few banks and brokers
will blow up. C will get interesting on the long side in
single digits, a major Fed bank, not allowed to collapse,
but I still wonder how they deal with derivatives bubble -g-