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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (23178)	3/17/2008 1:02:47 AM
From: Hope Praytochange	Respond to of 224744

Rail, Chemicals Likely To Jump If Oil Tumbles BY ALAN R. ELLIOTT INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 3/14/2008 U.S. oil demand is down 2.7% from a year ago. Crude and gasoline stockpiles are at or near multiyear highs. Global oil production is growing comfortably ahead of demand. Those conditions have led to growing caution that a slip in oil prices from current records well above $100 a barrel may be nigh. Some economists say a quick slide of $15 to $20 is possible. Wheat, oil, gold investors take heed By Gail MarksJarvis Chicago Tribune One sure way to lose money as an investor is to buy something strictly because it keeps going up. Technology stocks proved it in 2000. Housing proved it in the years that followed. Now, analysts are warning investors not to become carried away with commodities. Although gold, oil, metals and agricultural commodities have been breaking records and enriching investors while the stock market has been a loser, many analysts are growing skeptical. "The price trend in wheat, oil and gold appears to be similar to the ones seen in the late 1990s for the Nasdaq, and in the mid-2000s for homebuilders," Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich said last week. If investors were to see the prices of many commodities charted on a graph, they would see a line that shoots almost straight up over a short time period. That's known as a "parabolic curve," and it usually portends danger for investors — a sign of overoptimism that entices naive followers to join the herd toward the end of a cycle. "Be wary of the commodity complex, including materials, and its beneficiaries such as capital goods and energy equipment and services," Levkovich said Analysts worry about lemming investor behavior or too many investors buying commodity stocks and exchange-traded funds now, simply because they appear to be one of the few investments working amid a declining stock market. Levkovich is warning investors against the broad range of commodities, noting that Europe and Japan are slowing already and that the spillover to other nations may take months to show up.