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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (31158)	3/17/2008 11:36:48 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217548

I wouldn't u/st gold unless hedging. Yes, it could fall, but I doubt that it will fall in the long run. I am betting that the correlation between MZM and the price of gold holds. Am selling none and not shorting it. I think it impossible that whatever the ECB, the BoJ or the Fed do, the financials will emerge resplendent out of the muck. They will owe lots of $$ for the bailout (though the Fed's $30 bn backup of JPM for its purchase of BSC was without recourse; yes, without recourse, meaning JPM can freely stiff the Fed on the $30 bn) so they will be sucking mud for a long time. There is no panacea for the financials. But there is a bottom. Where? Pure WAG: in the SKF 150-175 range. I am considering a dangerous ultrashort, SMN, the commodities ultrashort based on the Dow Jones US Materials index. Has a bunch of exporting companies, which is the scary part. Lots of speculation-induced higher prices plus reduced global growth is bad news for commodities as CS solidly points out. I'm not going to go wild on SMN, but it is worth a speculative toss of a coin based on solid macro and solid evidence.