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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (92467)	3/19/2008 2:04:25 AM
From: inchingup	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"I'm now out of gold and gold stocks and will be for a while expecting a major contratrend dollar rally here.." You might want to take a glance at the USD and gold charts over the past few hours before making such a bold statement. <g> .

To: John Vosilla who wrote (92467)	3/19/2008 5:53:38 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Not really. It did very well in 73-74, rose from 70-ish to 200, but poorly in 80-82, depending on what the Fed was doing. Volcker crashed it, and gold was a bubble in 1980 anyhow. -g- It did have an interim bear in 75-76, but the bear market in stocks was over. If gold has a rise comparable to the first phase of 70-s bull, it should trade well above 1K, before that big interim 9-year cycle drop that every gold investor is scared of occurs.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (92467)	3/19/2008 6:12:35 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

FWIW, if "70-s but worse" scenario is real, the bear market ends in 2009 at SP=500, gold = 2K, then gold drops to 1K to complete it's 9-year cycle, and rises well above 10K in a gold bubble after that. Gold is rising on Fed funds rates staying much lower than inflation. Fed continues that - gold will keep rising. Fed nixes that - gold will fall. Fed slashed 75 bp. Yesterday - no fundamental reason for gold to fall, every reason in the world for USD to fall.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (92467)	3/19/2008 2:54:00 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I'm now out of gold and gold stocks and will be for a while expecting a major contratrend dollar rally here. I still have my core of gold & silver and tiny miners holding position, although I did do some light hedging the last two days. I'm back to neutral as of an hour or so ago - too wild & choppy for any leverage to speak of.