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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (1778)3/19/2008 3:47:58 PM
From: LTK007  Respond to of 3906
 
Here is my Metzpost, dated 1/25. i will , when i get a chance, see ifit isin theBloomberg TV video archives.i wastyping the post as i watched.

<<Whew Michael METZ of Oppenheimer Fund just gave a Bazooka blast to argument Bonds are signaling deflation.(all this via interview of this sharp elderly fellow on Bloomberg TV, i am only giving a run down i what i took in, actual interview should be on their website.

He said rush to T-Bonds is but a behavioral panic buying on the false presumption bonds are a safehaven.

He said in view of what real inflation actually is( as opposed what government says it is) this behavior is going to cause pain eventually to those running to T-bonds as they will later start to fail and yields to escalate markedly)


Metz states bonds are NOT signaling deflation but instead they are but signaling panic to find safety.

i thus surmise he he takes a firm stand that we are in and will continue to be in stagflation as he states that we are going into hard recession.

He sees Financials to be avoided and those buying now on the perception it is a bargain basement are wrong.

He stated he is bullish longterm Crude Oil and Precious Metals.

He says when this market really shakes out then carefully select specific types of equities.

He says there will be no great rally in the market in the second 1/2 of this year, it will however start to plod along moving fitfully up and down in a tight flatish range(just because money has so few places to go) , but within that action there will be outperformers, he named a couple items(he named N.A.crude explorers/developers, but not the big names like Exxon. He said this is in part due to Russia and other countries saying to the Big U.S. companies , stay the hell of our country thus N.A. exploration specialist will be in demand.)

He is extremely bearish the whole tech sector longterm.

He sees recession lasting well into 2009. He suggested a resurgence in construction the maybe the only way out.Max



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (1778)3/19/2008 4:06:35 PM
From: LTK007  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3906
 
Looking at GLD ETF chart. GLD has not broken below its 50sma since this rally commenced in August 2007.
It's present 50sma is 91.16 and GLD now is 93.04.