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Pastimes : Crazy Fools LightHouse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (3055)	3/29/2008 8:38:59 PM
From: ms.smartest.person	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3198

&#8362 David Pescod's Late Edition March 24, 2008 OILEXCO INC. (T-OIL) $12.60 -0.30 Last week on March 19th, Oilexco released its 2007 year-end results including financial and operational results and new reserve estimates. Fred Kozak of Canaccord, a longtime follower of the stock suggested that so far, the impact is neutral but writes, “This NAV is still a conservative estimate of the company’s true value as the 2007 year-end reserves do not include all the recent exploration discoveries such as Huntington Fulmar, Bugle and Kildare.” He figures the stock is still a buy and his target is unchanged at $24.00 and he writes that the next catalyst for Oilexco, “is currently drilling an exploration well on the Moth prospect. This well is targeting an Upper Jurassic-aged Fulmar sand, which may contain either oil or gas. The well is expected to reach total depth by the end of April.” If you would like a copy of that report, just e-mail Debbie at debbie_lewis@canaccord.com. Meanwhile, another group that has followed this story for a long time is the Schachter team where Jason White actually does all the hard work and the number-crunching, while Josef is off doing TV shows, on glamorous trips and the like. When we talk with White, he suggested that their numbers were a little bit shyer than they had expected for production and costs were a bit higher than expected, but he also makes the comment that there’s very few companies of this size that will experience the increase in production rates that Oilexco should experience in the coming 10 months. They maintain a $24.00 target, but White also cautions us that we are going from the high demand winter energy time of year to the shoulder season, when energy demands slacken before we get into the traditional driving season. Again, they maintain a $24.00 target. This of course is never a universal opinion as we notice that Jamie Somerville of Genuity Capital points to the slightly lower than expected production rate and higher G&A costs and interest payments and are actually adjusting their near-term assumptions for cash costs upwards. They actually lower their price target from $19.50 to $18.00. He does add however, “We are now giving Oilexco a premium to fully-risked NAV in recognition of both near-term exploration potential (i.e., Moth and Sparrow) which is not included in our fully-risked NAV, and continued high oil prices, which we have not yet incorporated in our modeling and which continue to make the company’s projects generally attractive investments.” Meanwhile RBC Securities considers Oilexco merely a sector- perform. One of the four analysts might be right! TIREX RESOURCES (V-TXX) $2.65 -0.05 BANKERS PETROLEUM (T-BNK) $1.37 +0.07 We’ve been jokingly calling it “the Albanian Index” but there is not much joking about it. In a market that has been absolutely brutal, two of the star stories have actually been Bankers Petroleum led by Abby Badwi and his experienced team from the old Rally Energy which made people rich, plus Tirex Resources. Tirex is run by ex-Canaccord broker Bryan Slusarchuk and he managed to grab a huge chunk of land in Albania (the former communist country run in Stalinist-type conditions) that was never explored by modern geological methods, but still with a strong mining history. Now that a lot more bookwork and geology has been done on assets in Albania, Tirex now posts this map showing first of all, the scale of their land holdings and secondly, just how many smaller mines and possible producers exist in this huge realm. Slusarchuk suggests there are three types of targets on this project: 1) being extensions of former producing mines 2) zones of mineralization partially defined but left un-mined, often because of reportedly high zinc content in the core (that in those days, they simply didn’t bother mining) and 3) airborne geophysical anomalies that have never, ever had any drilling. A frequent question Slusarchuk receives is, “how come so many high priority geophysical targets were never drilled by previous State-run exploration programs?” He answers “that the past exploration expeditions by the State Mining Company never had access to this type of information. It was Tirex that flew the first ever airborne geophysical survey in the history of Albania.” Needless to say, Slusarchuk is in a position where one always wants to remain optimistic, but he does write, “To have a potentially world-class VMS District with no previous airborne geophysical survey data may surprise many geologists and investors out there, but therein exists the Tirex opportunity.” Definitely a story to be watching! To receive the Late Edition and be on our daily circulation simply e-mail Debbie at Debbie_lewis@canaccord.com and give your address, phone number and e-mail and we’ll have you on the list tonight.