Elections for Illinois governor and Obama’s Senate seat are in 2010. (McCain will win the WH). This is an article discussing Illinois corruption and future Republican hopefuls.
Illinois Republicans: Looking for Bobby Jindal
By Russ Stewart
November 21, 2007
cdobs.com
“Looking for Bobby Jindal.” That’s not a recent movie, or a sequel to “Looking for Mr. Goodbar.”
Instead, it’s a quest, perhaps utterly forlorn, by Illinois Republicans to find somebody to run for governor in 2010 like Jindal, Louisiana’s new Republican governor. Stressing the issues of competence and honesty in a state where corruption and cronyism are the norm, Jindal won a solid 54 percent victory in October, in a field with 11 other candidates.
Like Louisiana in the past, Illinois is a cesspool of corruption. A former Louisiana Democratic governor, Edwin Edwards, is vegetating in a federal prison, as is a former Illinois Republican governor, George Ryan. The current Louisiana governor, Kathleen Blanco, a Democrat, is roundly reviled as inept and incompetent, due to her handling of the Hurricane Katrina aftermath. The current Illinois governor, Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, is roundly reviled for his arrogance, ineptitude and mendacity. Blanco had the good grace and perceptivity to retire. Blagojevich, whose poll numbers rank somewhere between abysmal and putrid, lacks both those qualities.
According to the November Glengariff Group, almost 52 percent of Illinoisans would vote to recall Blagojevich, 61.2 percent disapprove (of which 42 percent “strongly disapprove”) of his performance in office, and an anemic 31.5 percent approve. Blagojevich is a political train wreck just waiting to happen.
The new Louisiana governor, Jindal, is unique: He is of Indian-American ancestry, and he ran for office as both a fiscal conservative, demanding accountability on spending, and as a social conservative, opposing abortion, gay marriage, and gun control restrictions. And he won big.
Unfortunately, there is no Bobby Jindal in Illinois, poised to rescue the state from the clutches of our very own Blanco. Back in 2003, Jindal, who converted to Catholicism in his youth, got 676,484 votes (48 percent) in his bid for governor, in a turnout of 1,407,842. His racial background, and religion, were poisonous in heavily Protestant north Louisiana. But Jindal got elected to Congress from a suburban New Orleans district in 2004, and spent almost every weekend and congressional recess during the past three years literally living in Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Shreveport.
In 2007, Jindal won with 699,672 votes (54 percent), in a turnout of roughly 1,295,000, and he won all the north Louisiana parishes. But there was a Hurricane Katrina effect: Jindal’s vote increased by only 23,188 votes over 2003, but his opponents’ declined by roughly 135,000. The minority vote in New Orleans diminished significantly.
In Illinois, the Republican vote in races for governor has been diminishing significantly. In 1994, incumbent Jim Edgar was re-elected with 1,984,318 votes (63.9 percent). In 1998, when Edgar retired and George Ryan was elected, Ryan got 1,714,094 votes (51.1 percent). In 2002, when Ryan retired under an ethical cloud, and then-Attorney General Jim Ryan ran, he got 1,594,960 votes (45.1 percent), losing to Blagojevich. And in 2006, with then-Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka as the Republican candidate, she got 1,369,315 votes (39.3 percent). That means, in the three election cycles since 1994, the Republican gubernatorial vote has declined by over 615,000.
To be sure, corruption is epidemic. Democrats control Illinois, Cook County and Chicago. The city’s Hired Truck scandal has netted 46 convictions; the feds are investigating county and state hiring. There should be a massive wave of public revulsion directed toward the Democrats. But then there’s George Ryan. His very visible trial and sentencing has covered the Republicans with shame. They cannot now posture as the “reform” alternative.
With the governor’s election three years away, the Republican field is large but distinctly uninspiring. There are no Bobby Jindal’s. But elections featuring an incumbent are always a referendum on that incumbent. If Blagojevich manages to win his 2010 primary, when he will certainly face Attorney General Lisa Madigan, then virtually any Republican would have a chance.
At this early date, here’s the forming Republican field, in no particular order:
Ron Gidwitz:: A mutli-millionaire Chicago businessman noted for his cogent insights and refreshing ideas, , Gidwitz got 80,068 votes (10.8) in the 2006 primary, despite a lavish, self-funded direct mail and TV campaign. Gidwitz is a prominent backer of Rudy Giuliani for president. Like Jindal, Gidwitz is issue-oriented and not a backslapper. But he could get traction if he runs a campaign on a “honest and competent” message. .
Tom Cross: The Illinois House minority leader, from Oswego, is one of Springfield’s “Four Tops,” and has had major input into the current budget impasse. But he has not created a lot of name identification, and his support of a sales tax hike to fund RTA/CTA operations, and a new gambling casino, won’t endear him to Cook County voters or to the Chicago media. Like Gidwitz, he is backing Giuliani. Though obscure, Cross could sell himself as a “competent” future governor. But he lacks funding and name identification. .
Dan Rutherford: The state senator, from Downstate Pontiac, ran for Secretary of State in 2006 and got demolished by incumbent Jesse White, getting just 33.1 percent of the vote. But he wasn’t expected to win, and now he is running Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in Illinois, which will embellish his social conservative credentials. As Jim Oberweis demonstrated, the hardcore conservative vote in Republican primaries is 25–30 percent, which gives Rutherford a base—but probably for another state office, not governor. .
Bill Brady: The state senator, from Downstate Bloomington, ran for governor in 2006, and got 18.4 percent in the primary, finishing a respectable third. He is running again in 2010, and is managing Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign in Illinois. As a “fresh face” alternative to Topinka and Jim Oberweis in 2006, Brady came on strong late in the campaign. Brady may be the perfect candidate: He is personable and baggage-free.
Jim Durkin: The state representative, from the Lemont-Willowbrook area in southwest Cook County and DuPage County, ran for U.S. Senator in 2002, losing big to Democrat Dick Durbin, getting just 38 percent. But he did win the 2002 primary, getting 378,010 votes (45.8 percent), and topping Oberweis by 119,000 votes. Durkin is running the John McCain presidential campaign in Illinois. He could be credible as a 2010 “reform” candidate.
Andy McKenna: The current Republican state chairman, McKenna is another self-funder who could run. He lost a bid for senator in the 2004 primary, getting 97,238 votes (14.7 percent), finishing fourth. McKenna’s credibility going into 2010 depends a lot on how the Republicans perform in Illinois in 2008. If it’s a demolition derby, McKenna gets the blame.
Steve Rauschenberger: The former state senator from Elgin was a fiscal hawk in Springfield for 14 years, and ran for lieutenant governor in 2006 on a ticket with Gidwitz after concluding that he lacked the funding to run for governor. But he lost the primary, getting 202,905 votes (29.9 percent) to winner Joe Birkett’s (who was on the ticket with Topinka) 342,950 (50.1 percent). But it is worth noting that Rauschenberger ran almost 122,000 votes ahead of Gidwitz.
Joe Birkett: As DuPage County’s state’s attorney since 1996, Birkett is in a position to run as a “tough prosecutor” who can “clean up the mess.” It will be recalled that Jim Thompson, as a former crime-busting U.S. Attorney, won the governorship in 1976 on such a platform. Birkett ran a credible race for state attorney general in 2002, losing to Lisa Madigan by just 114,946 votes (47.1 percent), and acquitted himself well as Topinka’s 2006 runningmate. With Madigan going for governor, however, Birkett may opt to run for her job. The rap on Birkett is that he is stiff, unlikeable, and a social conservative. But Republicans know his name, and appreciate his efforts.
Jim Oberweis: A three-time loser in Republican primaries, the dairy magnate from suburban Aurora is in an up-or-out situation. He is running for Congress in the 14th District of retiring Republican Denny Hastert, which encompasses Kane, Kendall and DeKalb counties. If Oberweis wins, he’s going to Washington, and won’t give up the seat to run for governor in 2010; if he loses, he would have no viability to run for governor.
But the Republicans’ dream candidate for 2010 is U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald, whose reputation for competence and incorruptibility would make him an easy winner for governor. But Fitzgerald evidences no interest in politics, so the Republicans’ 2010 hope is that Blagojevich is the Democratic nominee, and that Anybody-but-Blagojevich would be acceptable.
The big question-mark is whether Henry Paulson, now secretary of the treasury and a billionaire who would be self-funding, would be available in a state he calls home (and where he still maintains a residence in Barrrington). Paulson was CEO of Goldman-Sachs, the big investment banking house which has a tradition of its graduate CEOs engaging in public service—such as Jon Corzine (an Illinois native) who has been both Democratic U. S. senator from New Jersey and who is now its governor and Robert Rubin who served as Bill Cllnton’s treasury secretary. To the minds of many, only a giant businessman of that stature can win with a moribund GOP, encrusted in old patronage deals, adding very little support whatsoever.
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