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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (9157)3/23/2008 4:10:48 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421
 
Goldman, Lehman Rating Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P (Update3)

By Zhao Yidi

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm, and smaller rival Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had their credit-rating outlook cut to negative by Standard & Poor's, which said Wall Street banks' profits may fall as much as 30 percent in the coming year.

``Our current expectation is that net revenue could decline'' at least 20 percent for independent securities firms, S&P said in a statement today. S&P affirmed its long-term credit rating of AA- for Goldman and A+ for Lehman. Both companies are based in New York.

The Federal Reserve's decision last week to open a lending facility for brokers and provide financial support for JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s emergency takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. ``mitigates liquidity concerns,'' S&P said. ``Nonetheless, we see some possibility, were there to be persisting capital markets turmoil and sharply weakening economic conditions, that financial performance could deteriorate significantly.''

JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, agreed March 16 to buy Bear Stearns in an all-stock deal that values the securities firm at $2.52 a share, or $366 million, based on yesterday's closing price. The collapse of Bear Stearns ranks along with Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. as the biggest in Wall Street history.

Bear Stearns stock, which peaked at $171.51 last year, closed at $30 two days before the firm was forced to accept JPMorgan's terms or face bankruptcy, after customers and lenders abandoned the broker because of concern about a cash shortage. The Fed agreed to provide as much as $30 billion to JPMorgan in order to get the deal done.

`Off the Table'

Goldman, Lehman and Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 securities firm, reported first-quarter earnings last week that beat analysts' estimates. Goldman's $1.51 billion profit was down 53 percent from the same period last year. Lehman's fell 57 percent to $489 million. Morgan Stanley's earnings declined 42 percent to $1.55 billion.

Lehman shares plummeted almost 20 percent March 17 on speculation that the firm might face the same crisis of confidence among customers and lenders that felled Bear Stearns. Richard Fuld, Lehman's chief executive officer, said the Fed's decision to allow brokers to borrow from the central bank ``takes the liquidity issue off the table,'' and the company's shares surged 46 percent the next day, when it reported earnings.

`Market Sentiment'

The ``near-term earnings prospects remain at least somewhat brighter'', S&P said in its statement today. Goldman, Lehman and Morgan Stanley have ``benefited from the strength of equities trading activity,'' while wealth management and asset management businesses have also ``remained relatively strong,'' the ratings company said.

S&P said it still can't ``rule out the possibility that market sentiment will turn more severely against some firms, undermining the effectiveness of even the most extensive preparations against liquidity stresses.''

Goldman, Lehman and Morgan Stanley said March 19 that they had borrowed from the Fed's new lending program for Wall Street firms. The Primary Dealer Credit Facility, announced by the central bank on March 16, allows the brokers to borrow overnight at a 2.5 percent interest rate, the same charged to commercial banks.

The Fed decided to become the lender of last resort to the 20 primary dealers of government debt two days after providing emergency financing for Bear Stearns.

Moody's Investors Service lowered its outlook on Lehman Brothers to stable from positive on March 17. The company's long-term credit rating was affirmed by Moody's at A1.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zhao Yidi in New York at at yzhao7@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 21, 2008 14:47 EDT



To: John Pitera who wrote (9157)3/27/2008 3:50:39 PM
From: Lazarus_Long  Respond to of 33421
 
LOL!!!!
Boy, you got a sick sense of humor! :-)