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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobs10 who wrote (3599)	3/24/2008 11:52:00 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4590

@Bob " Currently, I see Q2 close to, or at BE. " It would be a pleasure to see, but its highly unlikely, when you ask me. Your right, much will depend on the cost side, but this takes time, as you know as well. SP1 is producing now at near near-term "max-rates", which means, that output in Q3 will be constantly from 2000+ wafers and yields should be better too. I don't know, how fast SPSN could go away from TSMC products, but I'm seeing here again "fine" numbers in Q3 - means, I expect relativly small numbers in Q1, near 0 costs in Q2 and practically zero costs in Q3 as more and more 300mm SP1 wafers appear for the market. Alot will depend on market demands too - I can't predict the future here. But as FAB25 also grows (better yields, more 65nm, more wafer starts) and as SP1 ramps, this should be more than equal TSMC + demand ups - but this has to be seen. BIST will reduce costs as well, thats right, but when I understand this correctly, this will "only" appear for new products. So I don't know, if they will do this for 90nm (FAB25) too over time? I assume, that fresh SP1 products will "convert" too 100% BIST over the next quarters, which will save costs, but its again a process. When we speak about BE, the main "driver" will be ASPs and volume - ASPs clearly and by far the number ONE! If we could assume, that ASPs will be constant or somewhat up (thats a strong assumption), it will be relativly "easy" to expect good numbers. If prices go the route they went already the last two years, SPSN will not show BE - thats clear too, at least for me. As said a dozen times - I really hope that Numonyx will be in place at the end of Q1 or early Q2. If this company (around 25-30% MSS) has to operate very much different (that will be the case), I'm really wondering, what prices will do, especially if (then) 60-70% of the market are in the hand of two companies which have to show better numbers , much better ones, not tomorrow, better yesterday. That will be the question for the next 2-3 quarters. BUGGI