How Hillary Can Still Win
Dear Stumped,
Is Hillary being rude at this point, acting like a dinner guest who's overstayed her welcome? Or do you think she still has a chance to become the Democratic nominee even though the arithmetic is on Obama's side? And will Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama help him with voters?
-- A new reader
Dear New,
I wrote a column advising Sen. Clinton to take a bow and exit the stage once she lost the New Hampshire primary (which she won), so I have become reluctant to call this contest over until the proverbial fat lady (or trim superdelegates) sings. The race remains very close, and while she faces an uphill battle, there are still a lot of variables that could break her way and give her the nomination. Indeed, all the ruckus over Rev. Jeremiah Wright's vitriol could help Clinton immensely in the remaining contests. Can you really blame her for wanting to stick around to see what else we learn about Barack Obama between now and the convention?
The hundreds of superdelegates will play a decisive role in the end, and could even throw the contest to Clinton if the margin of pledged delegates narrows considerably and she gains some momentum.
In that regard, the value of Richardson's endorsement of Obama cannot be overestimated. It isn't so much about influencing voters (at least not real voters like you and me). It's about those superdelegates. Coming at the end of what had been the Obama campaign's worst week, Richardson's endorsement represented a call by one of the party's most influential politicos to close ranks behind the leading candidate. It helped assuage concerns that L'affaire Wright might have done lasting damage to the Obama brand. His own state of New Mexico has already voted, but Richardson has pull with other Latino superdelegates (members of Congress mostly) and he may encourage other former Clintonistas who may be tempted but hesitant to cross over to the Obama camp.
The fact that Richardson is so closely associated with the Clintons made his embrace of Obama all the more meaningful. Bill not only gave him two gigs in his cabinet, the former president even watched the Super Bowl with the New Mexico governor this year -- back when the Clintons were desperately trying to get his endorsement for themselves.
Richardson, in his plainspoken way, said some nice things about Hillary Clinton while endorsing Obama. But he spoke for a lot of Americans when he said on one of the Sunday talk shows that he wanted "something beyond Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton." He also said that Clinton was surrounded by people who practice "gutter" politics and feel entitled to the presidency.
Dear Stumped,
I'm curious as to why you are so confident that Obama's speech on race won't matter. I mean, he's going to have the majority of pledged delegates and a lead in the popular vote, so isn't the superdelegate vote the more important factor in assessing the import of his speech? A certain segment of the public just isn't going to vote for him anyway, and his speech may have swayed some superdelegates. Also, rising above cynicism, isn't it possible that Reagan Democrats could hear his message of redemption and, as they did with Reagan's similar optimism, respond to that?
-- MaryEllen Kersch
Dear MaryEllen,
You are right that it is virtually impossible for Clinton to overcome Obama's lead among the pledged delegates, making the superdelegates so important. But the margin of Obama's lead by June, when Puerto Ricans close out the primary season, will be significant in determining how much latitude superdelegates feel they have to make an independent choice. And in this sense, if working-class white Democrats start viewing Obama as the "black" candidate who is all about race rather than a compelling candidate who happens to be black, they could give Clinton a greater margin of victory in Pennsylvania, and could even help her prevail in Indiana and North Carolina.
For the sake of argument, let's say Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 25 points and chalks up wins in the other nine remaining contests, closing the gap in pledged delegates to a few dozen out of several thousand. At that point, couldn't a superdelegate in good conscience opt for Clinton because of her momentum and strength in big states? And if any superdelegates still had qualms, they could always invoke Florida and Michigan.
The underlying point is, how real voters react to campaign developments is still all-important -- even when it comes to influencing those superdelegates still on the sidelines.
As for those Reagan Democrats, I don't think it was the idea of redemption or optimism that drove them away from the Democratic Party in the first place. As David Paul Kuhn points out in his book "The Neglected Voter: White Men and the Democratic Dilemma," these working-class males left the party because they felt it had drifted too far to the left on cultural issues and was too engrossed in racial and gender identity politics. Obama has a compelling biography, and he gave a great speech last week. But one of the strengths of his campaign has been the ability to transcend conventional racial politics.
Dear Stumped,
I see that Rev. Wright and former President Bill Clinton shook hands in the White House when Hillary was the first lady. What do you think of Clinton welcoming Wright to his official home in light of what is known today (and, I am sure, then) of his attitude? How come the press did not make an issue of this visit?
John Henry
Dear John,
Presidents shake hands with a lot of unsavory characters. It's different from sitting in his church (with your family) for years and claiming him as your friend and spiritual guide.
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A note on last week's answer about Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton: Dave Carwell took issue with my analogy between "strategic" negative voting and rooting at times for your hated rival in football out of tactical convenience. He wrote: "Any real Redskin fan would tell you that cheering on another team to boost your position in the division, or to try to obtain a weaker opponent in the playoffs, is understandable and acceptable for any team in the NFL ... EXCEPT Dallas! Real Redskin fans will tell you they will cheer for Pol Pot, Charlie Manson, or Muammar Gaddafi before they would pull for Dallas!"
Stumped apologizes for his apostasy. |
