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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (30414)	3/25/2008 11:44:08 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78702

C- i'd say it's better to avoid it. No way to tell if this is the bottom or not and i think the next news is more likely bad than good. I don't like the new management either. The thing tC needs is another financial wizard like Pandit. A staid old fashioned banker with credibility would have been better, but i guess this material is in short supply now. I think there are safer plays to bet on the recovery of the financial sector, if you are so inclined. Once the subprime problem is gone (all loans are written off close to zero) there is still the big risk that the problems seep in the much larger sector of prime mortgages. With home prices sinking 10% in 12month there is likely bombs in the sector that i have not seen going off yet - all mortgages with vintages of 2004 or later and <20% downpayment are potentially under water. in my opinion a mortgage that is under water is not much better than subprime. if anything there will be a nice cottage industry of layers and mortgage professionals offering "help" to all those unlucky homeowners whose equity has eroded away due to lower housing prices and who now want out. That of course is not a problem specific to C but rather to anybody holding mortgage papers.