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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robin Plunder who wrote (92811)	3/27/2008 2:27:38 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

I expect to see the loonie eventually hit $1.50 USD.

To: Robin Plunder who wrote (92811)	3/27/2008 3:40:55 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I figured CAD would stabilise around .95 US... but I did not anticipate the present state of the US financial system being so dire.. Now we are at a point where the exchange rate hurts aplenty up here.. The largest economy in the country (Ontario) needs to do a lot more retooling if the CAD doesn't stop rising... The rest of the country may need to move west so fast it could effect the earth's rotation :O) It won't be boring at any rate.. The Black Swan

To: Robin Plunder who wrote (92811)	4/3/2008 8:38:12 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Barring catastrophe north ot south .95 looks good to me... It's becoming topical... RBC thinks loonie is headed below 90 cents US, BMO disagrees April 3, 2008 - 15:19 By: THE CANADIAN PRESS OTTAWA - The high-flying loonie is likely to descend to the 90-cent-US level later this year and continue weakening into next year, says a new forecast from Canada's largest bank. The Royal Bank research report predicts the Canadian economy will outperform that of its southern neighbour, but a U.S. recovery in the second half of 2008 and the curtailment of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will strengthen the American dollar. "By the end of the year, we expect the loonie to average 90.9 US cents," says the report from RBC economist Craig Wright. "This depreciating trend will extend into 2009 with the currency dropping further to 87 cents US by the end of that year." RBC's views on the dollar run contrary to an analysis published this week by Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. In BMO's view, the loonie's value will be kept aloft by strong prices for Canadian commodities and a wide spread between the Canadian and American central banks' overnight interest rates. BMO forecasts the loonie should end 2008 at about 97 cents US and 2009 at 95 cents US. The loonie has been near or above parity with the greenback for half a year, hitting a record US$1.10 in November and trading Thursday morning at 99.08 cents. The RBC forecast agrees with most other economic outlooks that the domestic economy will slow as the U.S. slump drags down Canadian exports and the manufacturing sector. The bank now expects growth in Canada to average 1.6 per cent for the year, down from last year's 2.7 per cent advance and down from RBC's previous forecast of 2.1 per cent. The new forecast is slightly below the 1.7 per cent growth projected in February's federal budget, but above the TD Bank's latest forecast of 1.1 per cent. The Royal Bank says every province will share in the slowdown, although some more than others. With manufacturing in peril, Ontario will be near a recession as growth slows to 0.8 per cent, it predicts, and Quebec will experience a sluggish 1.1 per cent growth rate. "The nationwide hit to Canada's exports will disproportionately affect Ontario because of both its heavy reliance on U.S. demand for its products as well as the unfavourable composition of those exports that are largely focused on the auto and forestry sectors," Wright said. He said Ontario ships 84 per cent of its exports to the U.S., accounting for about 40 per cent of the province's gross domestic product. But even oil-rich Alberta is expected to trend down, from 4.3 per cent last year to 3.3 per cent this year and three per cent in 2009. The bank says Saskatchewan will lead the country in growth at 3.6 per cent this year, buttressed by its energy, mining and agricultural sectors. Newfoundland, after leading Canada with nine per cent growth last year, is forecast to trail the rest of country this year at 0.5 per cent, largely due to declining production at all three of its producing oilfields. The report notes the rise in Canadian house prices has stretched affordability to conditions not seen since 1990. But homeowners should see a modest improvement in affordability throughout 2008, as the Bank of Canada is expected to keep lowering interest rates. The central bank's policy rate, now 3.5 per cent, is forecast to decline to 2.75 per cent by mid-2008. Wright said the reason Canada will continue to outperform the U.S. economy, if only modestly, is continued strong world demand for commodity exports such as oil, minerals and grains. 680news.com The Black Swan