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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ChanceIs who wrote (113221)3/28/2008 10:03:23 AM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
JCP - this must be really uncomfortable for the lemmings that were piling onto the "squeeze shorts in retailers" trade:

biz.yahoo.com

I've read quite a few articles in the past month that reinforced for me why I will remain short retail and restaurants, despite the foolishness in their shares. These guys operate on razor thin margins, with huge fixed costs. Talk about leverage - the wind blows just a little different than expected, and POOF - JCP earnings drop from 75 cents to 50 cents. And you wouldn't think much of it "Ah, it's just Q1", except that 25 cents is still a good chunk of their full year $4 guesstimate. That, and the Q1 estimates have already been falling like a stone:

finance.yahoo.com

From 94 cents just within this quarter.

Retailing and restaurants are really bad businesses to be in during a consumer downturn. Still gotta pay the rent, gotta keep the lights on, and gotta carry that inventory. Oh, and you issued credit cards to your customers? <g>

`BC