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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (44700)	3/29/2008 4:32:20 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 68461

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (3/29/08) amateur-investor.net The market pulled back this week on diminishing volume after rallying strongly the previous week. The Dow stalled out at its 38.2% Retracement Level near 12600 (calculated from the October high to its January 23rd low) and has dropped around 400 points. Also notice volume dropped off significantly as the Dow pulled back from Tuesday through Friday. If the Dow is going to maintain its rally from the most recent low it must hold support at or above its 61.8% Retracement Level near 12190 next week (calculated from the low made on 3/17 to the high made on 3/24). The Nasdaq rallied back to its 50 Day EMA (blue line) near 2340 and then stalled out on Tuesday. This has been followed by a 3 day pullback with a substantial decrease in volume as well. If the Nasdaq is going to maintain its rally from the 3/17 low it needs to hold support next week at or above its 61.8% Retracement Level which is near 2230 (calculated from the March 17th low to the March 25th high). As far as the S&P 500 it also stalled out near its 50 Day EMA (blue line) and then pulled back from Tuesday through Friday on diminishing volume as well. Just like the Dow and Nasdaq it will be important next week for the S&P 500 to hold support at or above its 61.8% Retracement Level which is around 1296 (calculated from the March 17 low to the March 24 high) if the rally from the March 17th low is going to continue. Overall next week is going to be a pivotal week for the major averages and if the rally from the March 17th lows is going to continue they must hold support at or above their 61.8% Retracement Levels mentioned above. If the major averages fail to hold support at their 61.8% Retracement Levels next week then that would likely lead to an eventual retest of the March 17th lows.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (44700)	4/6/2008 9:39:38 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68461

Headline Charts Newsblog Update: headlinecharts.blog.com ECRI has declared that a recession is a sure thing. Their inflation gauge is contained indicating a low level of inflation ahead. Their indicators look out 4-6 months or so. Red is a column of O's in a downtrend, blue is a column of X's in an uptrend. Below 30% is oversold, and above 70% is overbought. Yellow is a shift down, green is up. I'm seeing lot's of green which is encouraging for future prices. The fact that the SPX, INDU, TRAN have broken above the 50% level is a favorable sign. This is also still good field position for an intermediate rally to begin. If this rally is for real, the bullish percents will eventually be skewed to the right and remain there while the market slowly advances. However, that will represent a riskier time to buy. A few weeks ago the commodity indexes all corrected lower by 10% or so, and I thought it was time for the related stocks to take a back seat for awhile. But now the market leaders are the same old commodity-related producers we've seen lead the market for a long time. Energy, Material, Industrials. If there is a recession someone forgot to mention it to investors pouring money into the leading industry groups. Coal, steel, chemicals, metals...and computer hardware? Are these the industries that lead in a recession? How many companies buy new computers when they are facing a recession and a meaningful downturn in their business? The idea for the chart came from reading Connie Brown. She does quite a bit of work with the 14-period RSI and believes the support levels of the RSI are as important as the support levels in the price indexes. This chart certainly shows a critical RSI support level for the long-term trend of the SPX. Looks like we have just experienced a correction similar to the 1987 stock market crash, or the Volcker or Bush recessions. Disclaimer: All charts and comments are intended for education and discussion purposes only. No investment recommendations are being offered. Please do your own research and take responsibility for all investment decisions that you make. Questions and comments related to this post are encouraged. \| MON - Sector Strength \| TUE - Interest Rates \| WED - Market Breadth \| THU - Commodities & Currencies \| FRI - Market Sentiment \| SAT - Bullish Percents \| About \| contact: HeadlineCharts@gmail.com \|