Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (3642)	3/29/2008 11:50:10 AM
From: bobs10	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

you: Would be great, if Q1 volume is still in healthy shape for SPSN. me: Yeah, demand seems to be the big question. It seems like the developed economies are going to be in slow-mo for awhile while the less developed parts of the world make more and more demands on this small planets limited resources. Anyway, for SPSN this isn't bad news as low/medium wireless products are what's undoubtedly selling. Hopefully we'll be hearing some news about how demand is going for 65nm Eclipse in the q1 earnings CC. Eclipse could be the right product at the right time as demand for more functionality at the same price continues. I can't see any of the other NOR players having anything like Eclipse for quite awhile. I suspect that the new, but delayed products, Bertrand talked about in the q4 CC were all Eclipse based. From what Bertrand said: "We are here pushing a high density device in the sweet spot with a cost structure that is shining compared with competition. If you look at who is who in wireless you can find that in some cases you have crowded competition. In other cases it is very small and it is the smaller piece that we want to essentially go after, not the area where everybody is in there." Me: That kind of sums up what I see for SPSN. Namely, that they're going to use high density Eclipse chips to go after parts of the market where there is little competition. This should help ASPs a lot. Again Bertrand from q4 CC: "What is going on is 75% of Spansion is in Asia; China is very, very big for us and Taiwan and Korea and so on and so forth." Bertrand on delay of demand in q4: In some cases we had some kind of a new model phone pushed out a bit. Don’t forget that the activity we have right now is a lot of new design for us and for whatever reason, the customer elected to postpone the model from one quarter to the next one, then we are a little bit behind which means that quite frankly on the wireless segment that has been impactful a bit, this slight postponement. On the other hand, very, very strong activity as far as new socket phones converted to Spansion’s and that’s why we are ending the year with such a nice backlog going into the new year which mean that it is all about right now a lot of activity from winning new phone and new sockets right now and it takes always more time than what we want. Me again: To me reading and rereading the q4 CC, it sounds like q1 should be pretty good because of the back up in demand (1.3 BB). However, come q2 with the new products we should see a very big surge in demand and that's before 65nm Eclipse even hits in q3. I hope I'm not totally misreading this, but it looks like SPSN should be improving a lot q/q for the rest of the year. 90nm is going to be the bulk of the chips produced in 08, but the 65nm chips should command higher ASPs where higher density chips are needed. In particular, I think SPSN is now to the point where they can be a lot more selective about the business they go after. Last year they gave up some volume to ignore unprofitable business. They now seem to have regained that volume and are moving on to parts of the market where their unique technology and production capacity give SPSN advantages in cost and product.