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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (8868)	3/29/2008 9:47:20 PM
From: Aggie	Respond to of 50671

Hi jim_p, The oil business is keeping me very busy indeed, thanks for asking. I don't see the current toxic credit problem becoming a worldwide one, JMHO. For one thing, models of American excess, particularly those involving bad financial habits, tend to not transplant well in overseas settings. Those markets don't seem to have the energy or the will to sustain that kind of artifice, and I have not seen any signs that the consumer markets in other world regions have been overheated with easy credit. The only chance for that crossover of the contagion (that I can see) would be investments of foreign capital that took advantage of cheap credit opportunities here - and as someone has said, these are likely in a commercial market setting - not housing real estate. There is still some unwinding to come yet and the ripple effect could propagate backwards, I suppose. The wild card in my view is the balance of currency. The upside of a cheap dollar is the attraction it presents to bargain-hunting foreigners. I think this will help dampen the blow of poor credit availability here and help the economy work through the bottoms. Of course these situations always come down to competing and interacting nuances. How unavailable is credit? How weak is the dollar? How low can stocks go? How much has changed since the last recession disaster? In the end we are all talking through our hats and the outcome will be surprise - but hopefully not a shock to the system. I'm not nearly as smart as 95% of the people here, so I'm depending on wit and grit (and no money owed) to get through it. Good luck to all, Aggie