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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (30484)	3/31/2008 6:26:39 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78613

I am up early with some random thoughts. read another article this am about people likely walking away from upside down mortgages. the fed told fremont general to either raise capital or find a buyer. they own a bank with 20 branches. stock trades for .52. reading the yahoo board the different camps are the company is worth $2.50-$5 and no bank is going to buy them outright they will way till they get take over by the fdic and then buy the branches. It occurs to me that one of the shoes that havent yet dropped are banks being taken over by the feds and people waiting to get their cash out or standing in line to do so. fremont has about $8 billion in deposits i read. I wonder what will happen in the market when these events start to happen. Meanwhile the japanese market dropped 18% this quarter. Any thoughts?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (30484)	3/31/2008 11:31:02 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78613

To be fair quite a few of "great" value funds hold positions in BRK. For example finance.yahoo.com I agree with you that being short in the middle of the crash is a risky proposition. Mike Burry made money on initial drop and that's great, but now it is becoming hard to value and predict whether even the riskiest of securities are heading lower or higher in the future.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (30484)	3/31/2008 9:10:07 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78613

its been a tough quarter. I ended up +3.3% but I was up as much as +16% at one point. In retrospect my biggest mistakes were exiting bzp too early, getting in too deep with ccrt and not cutting my position when the opportunity presented itself. the rest of it im pretty much captive to my gold,silver, uranium and smaller oil and gas plays, and those are mostly denominated in canadian dollars which have taken a beating of late. Also keystone has been a big loser for me but I couldnt predict that tie was going to get hammered from over $30 to $15. I am still looking at AYR. I still dont understand exactly why the company stock got hammered and why management feels compelled to reduce the dividend. Its almost as if they could care less about shareholders. are they saying that 70% of book value is right for the stock?