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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (113726)	3/31/2008 3:45:10 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

In some of those charts (eg HOV) the latest action looked like a breakout of a base, but they've uniformly fallen back below the breakout. IF they get it back together, it could be that they're making a handle on a cup w/handle. If they should fail, it will be a hound, a failed breakout, and that could provide the kick to get them in gear again to the downside. Really, is there any serious doubt that this is FAR from over for them? I get myself into trouble by thinking too much and not just reading the charts. I hosed myself on CROX - knew that darned thing was going to collapse as soon as it broke. But I talked myself out of shorting the bugger as it dead-cat bounced because the PE didn't seem all that high at like 15X. Of course, it then lost ANOTHER 2/3 from there, and trades at a "forward PE" of about 5. What the hell are the anal-ysts thinking? Is the market really pricing them at 5X earnings? Or are they just utterly clueless? The "strong" homies are screaming for another big leg down, a recognition wave. Why the hell would you possibly buy MDC here? I know they're strong and will survive, but will they EVER have as much business as they did in 2005? So what is the potential upside on them? This is the picture presented by the long-term chart on them. finance.yahoo.com They're a poster child of the RE bubble. Some of these have pulled back a bunch, but one would expect them to give up all the gains of the bubble phase - and so return back to 2000 levels. finance.yahoo.com That said, I know the markets can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent, so I eagerly await some signal that the current six-month-long flight from reality is ending. For now, I'm content to treat homies as an indicator species, and their poor health says that the consumer-related stocks populating the 52-week lows list over the past few months are in real trouble. `BC