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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (113961)	4/1/2008 2:17:19 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I'm getting my butt kicked. Days like today make me long for a return to the good 'ol days of the 1980s and 1990s when I could invest in solid companies with good earnings prospects ahead of them. It was so easy. Then we had to have a godd*n bubble. This bear-market strategy stuff is a fing nightmare. Nowhere to hide, excessive risks everywhere. I can't wait 'til this stuff finally resolves...<ng> `BC

To: Peter V who wrote (113961)	4/1/2008 2:28:51 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

So far, it still fits the bill for a choppy, overlapping terminal corrective wave within the Fed-induced rally that is now in its 11th week. Sure wish I'd appreciated the significance of the Fed letting the pigs feed at the discount window. The timing had me on hair-trigger to get rid of the hedges, and the market was faring so poorly I just wanted to make sure I wasn't stuck in my hedges. I've put a lot of work into preparing for the next downleg in this bear, and I want to make sure I'm not left out when it finally fails. If only I woulda waited one stinking week to dehedge. Of course, the thought running through my head at the time was "These are the conditions from which a cr*sh occurs" if the retest failed. Of course we knew everyone and their brother was salivating for a "successful retest" of the January lows. Which suggested two things to me: 1. we should expect a vigorous piling-on rally if it gets into gear (which we are now seeing) 2. it probably can't last, given how many traders (and CNBS) were anticipating it The question is - when do the traders who were playing this scenario take their profits? Soon, hopefully - these rallies are rather uncomfortable without my hedges... `BC