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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kir71 who wrote (3697)	4/2/2008 5:17:30 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4590

@Kir " I know many ppl will crucify me for discarding future, but we simply do not know what will happen. Thus current state is a bit better ground for approximate estimates. From all the numbers ppl here dump it seems that as of NOW these companies should have similar valuation. " Correct. Thats why I said, that either SPSN has to go sharply up or Numonyx down or a mix of it. I have problems with Numonyx when it comes to products outside their key competencies - NOR. They will make some bit of DRAM and/or NAND, but how should I value this? All DRAM guys are now making losses and the big names have many many advantages compared to "small, new" Numonyx - this fits with DRAM and NAND. I think they will ship some products due to long contracts but thats it. In the normal market they have no chance here against Samsung/Hynix/Micron(IM)/Toshiba. When it comes to NOR, we have discussed all the prospects here in length, nothing new to write about. As I said a few days ago, Numonyx was loosing MSS all the last year and the progress imho just started, because they lost many many design wins due to the many unknowns in 2007. The outcome will just appear in 2008, where they will sink (imho) under SPSN in NOR revs. So, we don't know exact "earnings" numbers for them, but I think its a healthy assumption, that these aren't better than SPSN ones. So, when it comes to a valuation many more aspects will of course play a role, but under these conditions I really don't know, why Numonyx should be worth more than SPSN, which is at 160x2,8 = 450Mio. right now. So, Newco is now (roughly) 2400/450 = 5,3x higher valued than SPSN. For me at least thats only crazy. BUGGI