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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: zeta1961 who wrote (16058)4/2/2008 11:14:22 AM
From: TARADO96  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 149317
 
Zeta, there is a PA Rasmussen poll from yesterday, showing Obama down by only 4 points. So, taken altogether, the Rasmussen and PPP polls are rather consistent with each other.

Obe thing is for sure: the trend is in Obama's favor.

ps. Give some more of our kool-aid to Michael.



To: zeta1961 who wrote (16058)4/2/2008 11:18:39 AM
From: RetiredNow  Respond to of 149317
 
Hi zeta and thread,

here is the way to read these polls. The thing to look at is not any specific data point, like one day's worth of poll statistics. Rather, it is the trend. In all these polls, the trend is VERY CLEARLY up for Obama, which spells bad news for Hillary, since Obama just started campaigning and he has 3 more weeks to seal the deal. Based on what I see in the trends, Obama will either win, or he'll lose by an insignificant amount of less than 10%. PA will either be the final nail in Hillary's coffin or at least one more nail. The statistics tell us pretty clearly that Hillary's chances of winning the nomination or the WH now are very slim indeed.

Any other skeletons like Wright in Obama's closet? Even if there are none, don't put it past the Clintons to come up with a doozy of a lie that will hurt him further. Consider it another Hail Mary pass on their part. That's her only chance.



To: zeta1961 who wrote (16058)4/2/2008 11:21:45 AM
From: nigel bates  Respond to of 149317
 
>>What is PPP smoking?<<

It's only fair to point out that PPP's is the most recent poll in terms of voter interviews.

I don't put much store in any individual polls, but the recent trend looks pretty clear.

Whether Obama can actually win PA is questionable, but I'm feeling a lot better about my long odds (about 6/1) bet that he can. I think something between 2 and 4/1 would be fairer odds right now, and I'm hoping they will improve further.