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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stoctrash who wrote (9238)	4/2/2008 8:29:46 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

BUT of course, now this part is random: I still think we are the BSD (Big Swinging Dick) of the World. Funny.. I don't see it as random at all.. The US still is the only country able to defend it's economic and political interests anywhere in the world. Let's see China defend it's interests outside of the mainland.. Let's see Europe do it.. Russia?? Maybe.. But the US.. DEFINITELY!! And if you all think that transparency of the US financial system is lacking, ponder deeply how it compares to the transparency of competitor nations. I'm still waiting for some shoes to fall from overseas. Afterall, I seem to recall that, just a few short years ago, everyone was expressing worries about the status of China's banks.. Some folks estimated that nearly 50% of their loans consisted of bad debt. washingtonpost.com iht.com The recent sell-off in the Chinese stock market - down 25 percent in the past four months - could also hobble banks because a big chunk of their business comes from equity-related products. A fair amount of corporate lending found its way into the stock markets, and that money might have evaporated already. Chinese banks have, though, raised billions of dollars from capital markets, and this would help them absorb any credit losses. But the question remains: What level of asset quality shock could Chinese banks absorb? "Chinese banks are largely untested," said Alex Boggis, director at Aberdeen International Fund Managers. "They do not have much experience handling the stress and strains associated with open markets. That is why we do not like to own them." Hawk

To: Stoctrash who wrote (9238)	4/2/2008 9:47:47 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

1)FED cutting rates over and over to try and avoid the negative side of the biz cycle, That's not what FED is doing. They may be inadvertently putting in position a default condition that exacerbates their intention, much like they did in Oct '31. The proper rate of interest isn't determinable. That's why until the late '60s when the Keynesian thing got going, FED stayed out of the bond market. Would not interfere. Now, that's all FED does with its fix. eventually putting us where we are today with our own nasty internal economic issues. The economy couldn't be any more strong given our endemic inability to compete in the world. The US MUST depress its labor cost through whatever vehicle is available. This is an absolute and inescapable truth. It can elect to lower taxes on capital and corporations, or it can elect to invent a depression. One way or the other labor cost will be lowered or corporations will have to become far more profitable. My guess is the people will elect to bust the Lil Guy into the Stone Age. Socialism is too deeply rooted to go the other, rational, direction. It's my understanding that slow/weak/over the hill economies usually have weak or in our case a declining currency. No evidence for this in history. For example, is the euro strong or is the dollar weak? I don't think the euro is strong. The issue is what economies are efficient. The only ones in the world of scale are all in Asia. They're capitalist. shit now you've got me AFU) That is the first evidence that you're finally learning. You won't be taught how the machinery works at the university. They're too left wing prejudiced there. 2)Why own US$'s paying X when you can own some other paper that is paying X+Y. Relative purchasing power is all that counts on the international front. How many widgets can I buy made in the US vs made in China? This transaction could skirt the need to depress labor cost, but the 'crats won't let it. In satisfying their need to do good, they will do evil to Lil Guy, by preventing this transaction! Better get that down thoroughly, for that is how it has worked for the last 40 years. So in essence you believe the low US$ is a wash event? Yes, Gradual changes in the dollar have no consequence. It does not matter what the conversion rate is. Persistent moves in the dollar can counter endemic econ0omic malady in the US like preference for socialism. Let me define what the Bush Admin means by "strong dollar policy". They mean they won't interfere to artificially move the dollar to some level that presumably will do good. A strong dollar is the one that is allowed to do what it will: adjudicate between supply and demand in international trade. If that requires a lower dollar, so what? Maybe in the long long run, but right now it's F'd up some things, like why would foreigners want to own US stocks or Bonds They shouldn't, but that's independent of the dollar's conversion rate, and totally dependent on financial crisis. - when even if they rise in $ values they have a loss when converting back to their own currency? This kind of consideration is suspended until the financial crisis clouds have cleared. I still think we are the BSD (Big Swinging Dick) of the World. Why? Asia is capitalist. The US is socialist. The world's wealth moves from the socialist nations to the capitalist nations. McCain starts throwing some arrows at Iran or others and that US$ will move much higher. There's no reason to provoke Iran. Bush didn't do that. Currency issue resolved, innocent lives paid. No fundamental reason, just everyone scared of BSD as he unzips war head. New movie - "Blood Money" ala "Blood Diamond". ..shit now you've got me agreeing with your random US$ view.... You're learning. You're the beneficiary of that. It means you won't be bagged by media opinion.