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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (114317)	4/2/2008 10:30:27 PM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 306849

>>>"resilient economy" and "tax breaks" and "bailouts" keep being tossed around by those up top, hope springs eternal<<< I will recall again the adivce given me by a senior investor regarding financial earthquakes: 1) The problem emerges (that would be August '07 - although we all knew it in 2003), 2) Confidence is restored ( that would be the bailout of Bear, the nascent Congressional plan, and Bernanke saying...yeah if you really, really squint hard we might forsee a recession. I mean...nobody could rule it out, but....) 3) The bottom falls out. (Would that be with bank earnings in two weeks, or the foreclosure wave with 90 day defaults in August given the reset wave breaking upon us today?) Query for the board: Do we really have a sense yet of the nature of this spring's selling season?? The February numbers are always held to be a little funky. Surely there must be some hints of what spring will bring. Traffic?? Listings??? If it is mortgage applications (today), then I would say, 'Yeah the swallows won't be returning this year.'