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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eva who wrote (4407)	4/3/2008 4:22:30 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 4913

So now where will those families go, after they walked away. They can't buy a cheaper house, no credit, so they will rent, those abandon houses, and if there money runs out they will move again. This might become a generation of dwellers and vagabonds and empty houses. These individuals that walked away from home ownership are likely to suffer little if any consequences for their decisions. If one must point fingers, then point the fingers at a Congress that rewrote the laws on lending so that people that previously couldn't qualify under the old rules, now and suddenly, found themselves eligible for loans far beyond their abilities (and desire) to repay. Also, point fingers at the banks and mortgage companies for originating loans and mortgages with blatant disregard for prudent underwriting practices. Let's not forget property appraisers that valued homes and properties far beyond any realistic estimate of true worth. Oh, yes. I forgot the mortgage brokers and borrowers that blatantly and categorically lied on mortgage applications, inflating borrowers net worth and income, while at the same time minimizing or not reporting liabilities and other debts. What else? How about lenders that substituted ARMs for fixed rate mortgages, in many instances without the borrowers consent or understanding of the true meaning of the substitution. And lets not forget the geniuses that packaged up all of these risky mortgages into derivatives that the rating companies classified as top notch, so that lenders could peddle pieces of paper with major warts off to our European and Asian investors, investors that in the past have been quite supportive of US fiscal policies and lending practices. How about a morbid lack of Congressional oversight or any federal oversight of any of the above problems. Just like with Katrina, the whole fiasco of federal government is nothing more than an exercise in futility; no understanding of the problems, no solutions, no exercise of responsibility, no accountability, in short no nothing except for screwing the taxpayers. And just so everyone understands, this is a bipartisan mess, equally attributable to both major political parties, not just one party or the other. Many of these borrowers, especially those that walked away early are already "eligible" to apply for a new mortgage on other properties, many of those properties now available at "fire sale" prices. Congress will likely also authorize an increase in immigration so as to have a fresh set of buyers to acquire the existing excess properties available in many parts of the country, not unlike Bounty paper towels soaking up a spill. Oh, and one last thing to remember. No one in any position of authority wants to undertake retribution against those folks that either cheated, lied or abdicated their fiduciary responsibilities. Instead, everyone seems to want to sweep the whole mess under the rug and hope that no one notices. Well, we already notice. And in my opinion, we are going to notice for a very long time into the future. EK!!!

To: Eva who wrote (4407)	4/3/2008 4:37:32 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4913

more from one who does not use capital letters, just in in-tray ... quote a stock market sentiment alert: sentiment is curiously not very bearish. three data points that stand out: 1.option traders are outright bullishly positioned on 9 out of 20 market sectors, with 8 neutral and the remaining 3 with bearish positioning. (per put/call open interest ratios relative to their 52-week highs) 2. the 'fearless forecasters' sentiment survey has recentl recorded an 11 year high in bullishness, with 76% bulls and only 5% bears - the lowest bear percentage in the entire history of the poll. 3. the cumulative Rydex bear fund cash flow ratio has just dropped to a multi-year low, as bears flee from the short funds (they apparently all trust, resp. fear, the rally). the stock market rebound that has recently begun should normally be met with more skepticism. it's quite odd that this isn't the case. unquote

To: Eva who wrote (4407)	4/3/2008 4:50:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 4913

a veritable feast, just in in-tray quote Mr. Commodity: BTW: The full cover of the Straits Times today was to say the rice situation is under control. I.e. [1] It is about to get totally out of control or [2] it means we are at a temporary top if the crisis is making the front pages. Mr. Moolah Manager: Is anyone else watching the pathetic display in Washington? Dodd (who was the Senator I most disliked in CT when I lived in New Canaan) just said it best "we've socialized risk and thereby rewarded dubious risk-taking by the private sector". Doubt he means it, but I couldn't have said it better…. The One Who Uses No Capital Letters: i watched the proceedings closely, and i note that the truly pertinent questions were all studiously avoided. the fact that the people called to testify all looked quite happy with the softballing speaks for itself. i would point specifically to hussman's arguments regarding the fact that those who should actually have borne the risk - stock and bond holders of bsc - ended up bailed out, while the risk was transferred to the public purse. the excuse that 'otherwise the system would have collapsed' is wearing thin...it's not even credible. as expected, the hearing turned into yet another white-washing exercise - which is exactly what we should expect in such cases. unquote

To: Eva who wrote (4407)	4/3/2008 4:53:58 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4913

today is a public holiday here in hk, and so another teasing treat :0) quote Ilya: PIMCO on European developments pimco.com One Who Uses Few Capital Letters: note: the markets are actually indicating that the ECB is more likely to raise rates than lower them. in other words, the ECB technocrats have been successful in convincing the markets that inflation is their primary concern. also noteworthy, the accelerating price inflation in the European periphery, where CBs are also hiking rates. i doubt therefore that the ECB will heed PIMCO's call to 'proactively cut rates'. besides, from personal experience i can confirm that euro-zone inflation is anything but in need of yet another shot in the arm. it's getting quite annoying as it is. PIMCO's apparent conviction that one should avoid any and all economic slowdowns/downturns at all costs, inflation be damned, amounts to recommending exactly the wrong remedy of course. credit booms create malinvestments that need to be periodically liquidated if the economy is to remain on a sound footing. avoiding downturns by egging on credit expansion even more leads to ever worsening long term structural economic damage. we can not repeal the laws of nature, and neither can we repeal the laws of economics. PIMCO falls prey to the 'potent directors fallacy' - the belief that a bunch of monetary bureaucrats can somehow defeat the business cycle. all they can do is alter its frequency and amplitude - usually to everybody's great regret in the end. unquote