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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (114)	4/3/2008 5:51:24 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 3209

Is the question hard? Are there no arguments? AA

To: AllansAlias who wrote (114)	4/3/2008 6:55:31 PM
From: rcksinc	Respond to of 3209

AA I will take the leap. I think the TRAN performance speaks to the type of recession we are having. People are still working and spending, somewhat less on the spending side I'm sure. Compared to 2001 and the Dot. com bust we are booming here. This is just an opinion but this recession has not started with loss of jobs. Jobs will be lost but to what degree is what the market is trying to figure out IMO. Spending has slowed I'm sure but where I live there is full employment, freeways are packed (S.F. Bay Area). In 2001 freeway traffic dropped off like a rock, there was a huge loss of jobs here. We just traveled last weekend to So. Cal., restaurants were packed, hotels were near full in LA, San Diego and Santa Barbara. The problems with the financials will be with us for a long time and housing depending on your local can be almost unchanged. They are letting the air out of the bubble the only way they can and possibly they will succeed. JMHO.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (114)	4/3/2008 7:34:50 PM
From: kckip	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

How about (at the risk of getting kicked off the board) a)i)the recession is here and the TRANS are predicting that it will be short. A post by Teaparty from Feb. with charts: Message 24278894

To: AllansAlias who wrote (114)	4/3/2008 8:15:09 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

I vote "B". Looks to me like TRAN has completed (or nearly completed) an ABC corrective since New Year's. Earnings for the sector (ex-rails perhaps) are likely to be bad in the upcoming quarter and that should cap it. It's not like it's run to new highs yet or anything......if it did I would reconsider it's signficance. m'Kay?<G>

To: AllansAlias who wrote (114)	4/4/2008 1:17:55 AM
From: Galirayo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3209

I choose .. C .. and B .. ? >>>If a recession is here/coming, how could our $TRAN have done that breakout, with the implication that it is now headed back to the highs. Could be:<<< The Plunging USD Created Abnormal Demand for our Coal, Grain and Manufactured Products .. maybe even our Stocks. (Heck the US is having a Gigantic Discounted Dollar Sale.) The TRAN is being driven primarily by Overseas shipments, which won't really stop any recession here, as well as a genuine rally in the Rails on a cost effective per mile per pound basis. The TRAN contains Airlines .. which are mostly Commuter class today. It should be re-weighted. Dump the Passenger Jet part. Another one filed for BK today. Again. Pan Am .. TWA .. Delta .. US Air .. Which one of the airlines has not filed for BK anyway ?? We should just go ahead and add Metro Buses .. Taxis .. and Subways [not the sandwich shops] .. to the TRAN ?? :) The Rails, Fed Ex , UPS , Logistics , and Ocean Shippers are the ones pulling the sector up. And B .. The TRAN is sitting on Horizontal R tonite from the May 06 High Pivot.. it may stall here. But in all actuality the Run in the TRAN is being driven by investor appetite and may have nothing at all to do with a recession only supply and demand on a lowered float after Buffet lowered the Water Table of RR shares. Makes me wonder if he likes CHRW .. it's hitting New Highs. finance.yahoo.com It should be Rails and Shippers ... with a 2X inverse on Airlines. LOL IMHO