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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (114820)	4/4/2008 2:10:49 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

The interest rate rise is going on. You don't see it in treasurys, but the real economy borrows in the corporate debt market and the municipal bond market. I keep hearing all this garbage about the anomaly in the market with spreads going so high. I think the "anomaly" is the low treasury rates. Everything else is going higher: Message 24466928 The recession is on, there's no rescue, and it's going to get worse. The feedback loop is engaged. Deteriorating credit quality will force reductions in liquidity. Wall Street can pretend it's just going to go away, but when the credit cards and auto loans hit, and when the foreclosure sales happen at shockingly low prices, the bear will consume the leveraged stock players as well. This hasn't even come close to 1973-4 yet. Give it time... `BC

To: John Vosilla who wrote (114820)	4/4/2008 2:21:23 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

>> Personally I doubt we get the crash everyone expects without a major rise in long term rates. Perhaps the real crash happens after the real estate downturn ends, inflationary pressures really kick in and the fed is forced to create a recession to curb inflation as it did that last period?<< FWIW, I'm leaning this way. The best hedges (ex-the mid-March commodity unwind) for this ramp have been commodities. If Ben is successful in reliquifying the borkers (which is synonymous with reliquifying the hedgies), then commodities will soar. That's one of the reasons we seriously NEEDED a recession. If we don't get one, we'll see a good old fashioned crack-up boom, oil at 200 and gold at 2000 by 2010. I've still got SKF, SDS and 'covered-short' COF with a smattering of poots, but I'm mainly long COW/energy/golds.