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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: onepath who wrote (58205)	4/6/2008 10:21:49 AM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78408

May I join the discussion?... It's hard for me to get enthusiastic about a nine year warrant ? (is it my age or my experience ? lol) I hang my hat on the system of assessing warrant leverage that I have used over the years. If the stock doubles in price to $15, a reasonable target, what will the intrinsic value of the warrant be ? It still won't have any intrinsic value, and that spells lousy leverage, in my language. Would the leverage improve if the life of the warrant were even longer ? In the short term, the common stock has climbed about 6% in the past week, but it looks as if the warrant hasn't climbed at all. No sign of leverage there if that's true. It runs in my mind from way back that Black Scholes option evaluation was originally intended to apply only to options that have less than a year of life. I'm a little dubious about using it for a nine year warrant. Nevertheless, mining stocks themselves certainly have an option-value component as a call on metal prices. That's what makes common stock attractive.

To: onepath who wrote (58205)	4/6/2008 11:12:35 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 78408

Postscript: In my last posting I mentioned the option-value component of mining stocks. Perhaps what makes it particularly relevant to NGD, is that Pierre Lassonde subscribes to it; see his comments from his interview with Mineweb several years ago; Message 24254562 The study he refers to calculates yearly call values in number equal to the half-life of the ore reserve, and then discounts each yearly call to its present value...... the more distant the year the less the PV. Perhaps this type of evaluation would put little incremental value on such a long term warrant as ngd.wt.a

To: onepath who wrote (58205)	4/6/2008 3:53:38 PM
From: marcos	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78408

They had a forest service guy on the radio the other day, saying it's certain now that over half the pine in the interior is gone, much and quite likely most of the rest will be lost as well ... area bigger than Belgium, eighteen million logging truck loads of wood dead and rotting on the stump [thirty-five or forty cubic metres per load, try to imagine that, hard to do] ... so there is wild salvage going on at knock-down stumpage for a little while, and then that'll be that, even if we had some sort of bacterial process to turn dead wood into liquid fuel there would only be furnish for as long as pine snags stand, a few years and no more ... problem will fix itself of course because without lodgepole the bugs will die off, and the whole cycle begin again, but with a multi-decade wait till next harvest the interior will need alternative employment, and there is nothing else of any scale but mining Look at them up in arms in re run-of-river power though, that's the kind of province we have, something around a third of voters will absolutely oppose any income generation other than cheques from the government ... so permitting in many cases will be an uphill slog and slow, anything reasonable will pass in the end though, there isn't much option ... Kemess North wasn't that reasonable imho, they should have foreseen that filling in Duncan Lake wouldn't fly, you can't do stuff like that in this day and age, work up an economic dry land tails plan and it's a go ame.v - yes can't forget Abacus, i've had it on quotes, woulda shoulda coulda but didn't so far ... ngd will let them simmer for a while imho, this is how these things are done, they wait you out Schulich was a major part of fn.to/en.to, very auspicious that he's in with Lassonde again ... he buys thirty millions worth of stock in his rrsp? - woo, consider what that means given contribution limits over the years, he has to have made decent return on investment, lol ... ah but they'll get him when he has to take it out, there's the rub [unless rrsp regs get changed by upcoming boomer greypower - time to revise that age 71 kickout to 101 or thereabouts maybe eh, in the spirit of Rock On]