Clinton, Obama rallies are like jazz vs. rock
Election - The size of the Oregon crowds greeting the candidates reveals a lot about their campaigns
Saturday, April 05, 2008
JEFF MAPES
The Oregonian
Does crowd size matter?
That question comes up today when Sen. Hillary Clinton campaigns in Oregon at events that will look far different from those held last month by her Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama.
When Obama, D-Ill., barnstormed through Oregon, he drew more than 30,000 people, mostly at two mega-rallies that filled basketball arenas in Portland and Eugene.
In contrast, Clinton, D-N.Y., will appear in a pair of high school gymnasiums in Hillsboro and Eugene that together hold fewer than 6,000 people.
But that isn't the end of the story. Obama's rock-concert style rallies around the country have brought in hundreds of thousands of youthful voters, many of whom have not had much to do with politics before. Clinton, meanwhile, uses smaller, made-for-TV events aimed at appealing to older voters who are the base of her support.
These divergent approaches have produced the tightest presidential primary race in modern American political history, one that appears destined to continue well past Oregon's May 20 primary.
Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia who closely follows the presidential race, said Obama strategists have capitalized on their candidate's magnetic speechmaking to hold a series of huge rallies that most primary campaigns wouldn't even try.
"When you get out these enormous crowds," he said, "you get a huge list out of it, and that list is used for contributions and voter turnout and so on. And, also, it does make for great television because the excitement factor is there, the enthusiasm is there."
Barbara O'Connor, a communications professor and political media expert at California State University at Sacramento, said Obama builds his crowds by using the power of the Internet to attract many young people who have often been disengaged from politics.
Obama is "energizing a new group of voters, including independent voters and cross-over voters and youth voters, and that requires more face time and the energy" of a packed arena, O'Connor said.
In contrast, Clinton "really does have the party loyalists" who are sure to vote. "She doesn't need to have a huge rally to sustain their support," she said.
Sabato said Clinton does better in smaller events where she can have a more intimate conversation with voters -- as she plans to do in Hillsboro and Eugene, where she will take questions from the audience.
"That looks good on TV," Sabato said. "It looks like she is relating to individual voters."
Josh Kardon, who chairs Clinton's Oregon steering committee, said Obama's big rallies were generic road shows that had little to do with Oregon.
"Sen. Obama came to the state and did a great job of being a rock star," said Kardon, chief of staff to Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore. "But mostly he gave us that great stump speech of his he's used in over 40 states.
"I think you'll see more listening and more interaction during Sen. Clinton's visit," he added. "I think you will see her drill down a bit more on Oregon issues while she is here. . . . We want to give people something that is less canned, so that people can see how Sen. Clinton thinks, how she approaches issues."
But Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer, Obama's most prominent supporter in Oregon, said Obama "was very interested and curious about Oregon-specific things" during his day and a half of campaigning here. Blumenauer argues that Oregonians are essentially interested in the same things as voters everywhere -- such as the war in Iraq, the economy and the environment.
He said that Obama's large rallies and enthusiastic crowds were unlike any he has seen in decades and that it speaks to the desire people have to change the face of politics.
"It's helping people feel like they are connected to something larger," Blumenauer said. "People want to feel better about the country and to feel like they have a role in making it better." |
