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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (77398)	4/8/2008 9:49:28 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Here's what I'm looking for over the next 10-years, about an average of 1.1% growth. siliconinvestor.com I believe the worst recession we had since the Great Depression was in 1980-1981 at 4.5% contraction. That was at a time when 50% of the economy was manufacturing based. It is now about 14% manufacturing based. Due to the small percentage of the current workforce that is unionized, restructuring takes place at a much quicker pace than in 1980-1981, making it possible for business to be better positioned for whatever happens. Furthermore, while there are job losses in the service sector, the skills of those who are losing jobs are applicable in other service areas, although often times at a lower wage scale. In 1980-1981 many workers did not seek employment outside the realm of their last job, which limited thier prospects for future employment. The workforce is much more fluid today, and while the jobs many people find will likley be at a lower wage or self-employment, they will be back to work quicker than in 1980-81 due to economic necessity and more flexible and realistic attitudes towards the job market. I guess what I'm suggesting is that we are likely to have an "L" shaped recession if you add up the growth rates over the next 5-years and take an average. I think that average will be about -0.5%, which will be worse than the average from 1980-1984 if my memory serves. That would make this time period the worst since the Great Depression even though the pain in any given year will likely be moderate. It will just likely be long and drawn out like no other period since the Great Depression (5-years vs 10-years).