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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (5997)	4/8/2008 2:48:06 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 71475

>>>The only bubble left to blow is in commodities.<<< I think one has to differentiate between commodities. With the sudden deceleration in housing and also probably home improvement in the United States, timber and lumber should come under a lot of pressure. Copper may also be somewhat restrained, although the Chinese could certainly use a lot of it. But it's hard for me to see a top for agricultural commodites. And a continuing erosion of confidence in paper money --as we all know-- ought to support gold. Simple arithmetic shows that gasoline at $6.00 a gallon in the U.S. would support a crude oil price of $200 a barrel. The U.S. public would find ways to cut back on driving, but gasoline would go on selling at that price. $4.00 a gallon is already expected later this year, and that supports crude at about $125--WITHOUT factoring in any further decline in the dollar. That's where most of my money is: oil, food, and gold.

To: Real Man who wrote (5997)	4/8/2008 4:26:48 PM
From: CuriousJ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

Just out of hand. I found the article below on a blog on a social network I'm a member at. What's next to come?? cnn.com

To: Real Man who wrote (5997)	4/8/2008 6:56:09 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71475

AP Morgan Stanley's Mack Sees End of Crisis Tuesday April 8, 11:06 am ET By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer Morgan Stanley CEO Says Mortgage Crisis "In the Final Innings," Sees Opportunity PURCHASE, N.Y. (AP) -- Morgan Stanley Chief Executive John Mack said Tuesday that Wall Street is facing the most difficult conditions that he has seen in 40 years, but he feels the global credit crisis might be "in the final innings." Mack, who easily won re-election to Morgan Stanley's board along with 10 other directors, said at the investment bank's annual meeting that he still plans to "go slow" because of the market's turbulence. The bank wrote down billions of dollars worth of securities linked to risky subprime mortgages and other debt since last year. "We're keeping powder dry," he said. "We feel the risks on the market, the run on Bear Stearns, and we think it is important to have very liquid positions and we're working toward that." He expects more bad news will come out as the world's banks recover from the subprime mortgage crisis, particularly from "overseas and some small retail banks in this country." However, Mack said he thinks the market is turning and that could provide opportunity. In fact, Mack said that Morgan Stanley is seeing opportunities in the same mortgage market that caused Wall Street's pain this year. "I don't know if this is the bottom or close to the bottom, but at some point it will be wise to invest there," he said. Mack faced a tough test at this year's annual meeting after three pension funds aligned themselves against the nomination of Morgan Stanley's slate of directors. However, all secured easy re-election, according to preliminary tallies. Bill Patterson, executive director of CtW Investment Group, said more is needed to ensure Morgan Stanley and other banks don't take excessive risks. He had urged investors to withhold votes from Mack and other directors, and called on Morgan Stanley to set up an independent chairman. "More is needed," Patterson told Mack during a question and answer session at the meeting. "The company needs an independent chairman who has the capacity to stand up to you when risk gets out of line." Mack said Morgan Stanley's board is set up with a lead director that officiates over meetings, and that he often "stays out of the room and waits" when the board discusses certain issues. Morgan Stanley shareholders also turned down a proposal where shareholders have an advisory vote on compensation for top executives. Last year, Mack turned down an annual bonus after Morgan Stanley suffered losses due to the mortgage crisis.

To: Real Man who wrote (5997)	4/10/2008 8:41:21 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71475

WHO PAYS ALL THIS STUFF?? Increase in Trade Deficit Raises Concern Thursday April 10, 5:53 pm ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer Second Month of Increase in Trade Deficit Raises New Worries for US Economy WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly increased for a second straight month in February, raising concerns that the economy's one standout performer could be starting to flag. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the deficit between what the U.S. imports and what it sells abroad rose 5.7 percent to $63.2 billion in February, the highest level since November. Imports of goods and services shot up 3.1 percent to an all-time high of $213.7 billion, reflecting a big surge in imports of foreign cars. Exports also set a record, rising by 2 percent to $151.4 billion, reflecting strong gains in the sale of American-made heavy machinery, computers and farm goods. Critics claimed that the sharp rise in the trade deficit showed the continued failure of President Bush's policies emphasizing negotiating free trade agreements as a way to promote U.S. jobs by boosting exports. With businesses cutting 80,000 jobs last month, the most in five years, and the country likely in a recession, the debate over trade is expected to intensify in this election year. Republicans contend Bush's policies reflect the reality of the new global economy, while Democrats argue that the president has contributed to the loss of more than 3 million manufacturing jobs since he took office. "Wages are falling and the middle class is shrinking because of trade deficits," James Hoffa, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, said Thursday at the end of a three-day convoy across Pennsylvania aimed at highlighting the failings of Bush's trade policies. Trade is shaping up as a key issue in the presidential campaign and in the fight for control of Congress. In an early showdown, the Democratic-led House voted 224-195 on Thursday to reject Bush's effort to force Congress to vote within the next 90 legislative days on a free trade agreement with Colombia. The administration charged that Democrats were forsaking a key South American ally while Democrats said Colombia needed to do more to halt the violence against union organizers before they would consider the trade pact. The vote also calls into question pending free trade deals with South Korea and Panama. In other economic news, the number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week after having hit the highest level in more than two years in the previous week. The Labor Department said applications for jobless benefits totaled 357,000 last week, down by 53,000 from the previous week. Economists said the wide swings reflected in part the trouble the government is having in seasonally adjusting the figures. Meanwhile, the nation's retailers reported mixed results in March. Wal-Mart and Costco Wholesale Corp. were among the best performers. Other retailers said their sales suffered from the weak economy and an early Easter that dampened clothing sales. On Wall Street, investors were encouraged by the big drop in weekly applications for jobless benefits and the better-than-expected performance for some big retailers. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 54.72 points to close at 12,581.98. For the first two months of this year, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $727.6 billion. Last year, the deficit declined to $708.5 billion for the entire year, fueled by a boom in exports. It marked the first decline in the trade deficit after five straight years of records. With the economy battered by a prolonged slump in housing and a severe credit crunch, trade has been one of the few sources of strength. However, analysts said based on the rising deficit in the first two months, trade will likely provide less of a boost in the first three months of this year, making it more likely that the overall gross domestic product turned negative. Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist for Global Insight, said he expected GDP would decline at an annual rate of 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent in the first quarter. The classic definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. Bethune said the big jump in auto imports in February may be reflecting a move by American consumers toward more fuel-efficient foreign cars, which would be another blow for struggling U.S. automakers. Many analysts believe the two-month jump in the deficit will be reversed in coming months because they think a recession in the United States will cut into demand for foreign goods as well as U.S.-made products. For April, the politically sensitive deficit with China dropped by 9.6 percent to $18.4 billion, the lowest imbalance in a year. The improvement reflected big declines in imports of computers, cell phones and other telecommunications equipment as well as clothing. Even with the decline, the U.S. deficit with China remained the largest with any country. The next highest deficit was an imbalance of $6.9 billion with Japan. America's foreign oil bill fell 5.7 percent to $37.7 billion in February, marking the first monthly decline in a year. It occurred even though the average price for imported crude oil hit a record of $84.76 in February. With crude oil prices hitting new records above $110 per barrel, analysts believe the petroleum bill will resume rising in coming months. The deficit with the European Union rose to $6.9 billion in February, up 13.5 percent from January, even though U.S. exports to Europe hit an all-time high, reflecting the fact that a decline in the dollar to record lows against the euro has boosted the price competitiveness of American products.