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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chaka who wrote (93386)	4/10/2008 5:18:06 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

The EUR took the place of the "safe heaven" currency instead of the USD at present time. Yes all trades are one sided and there is pressure on the ECB to lower rates which they wont at the moment. But as usual no one is ringing a bell at tops and bottoms. My logic is based on; EU trade balance is turning negative after many years their own backyard - CEE Countries are running huge deficits and living beyond their means Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Spain and UK have a RE debacle unraveling, which will spread further Coal is hitting new highs and the US has the biggest coal reserves exporting now to the EU as S. Africa Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia coal goes to India and China who open on average, every 2 weeks a new coal powered power station Any one writing "off" the US is ignoring the US natural resources from coal to agricultural productivity which is 2.5 times of that in Europe (9,5 ton per HA v. 3.5 to max 4 ton per HA of corn) Add to it the actual dynamic of business v. EU with it's stiff laws it makes a difference OOOOHHHHH and I forgot Mr. Kadlow who gave up on the USD

To: Chaka who wrote (93386)	4/16/2008 1:30:12 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 110194

"the elephant in the room is the block of money (3+ trillion, mostly, dollars) sitting in various govt. coffers - if ever there is a definition of dumb money, it would be this" From the buyers point of view, maintaining an artificial exchange rate far outweighs the downside in the curreny holdings. Losing even 20% of the value of your forex holdings is worth it in the short term you are able to use the imbalance to grow gdp >5% and if your long term goal is to expand your manufacturing base. Last time I checked foreign holding of US dollar continued to grow at a record pace.