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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (253)	4/10/2008 7:17:39 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Good stuff AA. I see a lot of charts that are reflecting those views. One thing that I mentioned earlier are the banks. Many of them had huge pops up and have been jelloing around since. Since mid March or so the index has become very messy. Stocks like GS and LEH have some big moves up in my opinion. They need to be observed in relation to the indices.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (253)	4/10/2008 10:35:59 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

I also like the first version better. Other interpretations are possible, even if less likely. Whatever will be the final EW labeling of the March advance, one thing is certain -- we have all seen plenty of more lucid and prettier structures... -g. I've stayed for the most part cautiously (read: moderately) long during this latest rally. In fact, used this morning's test of the 50% retracement of the latest up leg - as well as the lower line of a channel - to increase long exposure. Risk is controlled -- at this time, will get out if today's low doesn't hold. Don't want to be a hero. Since I am not sold on any short term EW scenarios, will probably manage it the old fashioned way - use trailing stops.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (253)	4/13/2008 1:44:17 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3209

Not much has changed since last week -- since I wrote: "We've been talking about getting to the SPX 1410 level. I expect it to happen next week." (i.e., this coming week) I remain 20% long equities, 80% fixed income. Things are at a fascinating stage here and I am getting much enjoyment from the various chart battles going on. About 3 or 4 valid Elliott maps are in play, which is a little unusual. The more valid maps in play, the more interesting is the market -- the more is it at a critical inflection point. GE got crushed. That should want to rebound, which will help matters for the s-t bulls. Oil charts hand in the balance here. After another pop, they could easily be headed down again in a brother leg to the original decline off the top. Banks are mired in jello. Not much to say there. They could go up and down and sideways for many weeks, without any trending. Right not, the monthly trend is decidely down. Housing has more to give to the downside I figure, but it could easily pop in the next days to $HGX 164. This would mean not much. Above 170 I would reconsider my bearish stance on it. Gold is unchanged this last month. It still looks pointed down into at least the late spring. If $HUI prints over 472 or so, then I'll re-think that, 'cause I don't wanna get shut out of gold. GOOG is a big contributer to the NDX, and it's been taken out pretty hard these last months, but other than a pop up close to $500 in the next days, it looks to me like it wants to resolve to the downside before a more meaningful bounce. --------------- Regarding equities in general, how about some charts to watch for a hint about an emerging trend? The ones I will name are at very important junctures. From an Elliott perspective, their direction in the next few weeks will determine their bias for months to come. Here are some: WMT: About $1.50 from the top of a behemoth triangle going back 7 years. That will get repelled, but it has to be watched in the next weeks, as a breakout is very bullish. Search the thread for "WMT" to find a long-term chart. Semis: We've posted a few SMH and $SOX charts. This one is very interesting. It should pop here shortly, but the key is what happens after that. If the SOX prints over about 400, it switches to longer-term bullish map. The cleanest read, imo, is that it goes down again after the pop. Transports: We've talked a fair bit about the nice move in $TRAN. This is mostly due to the excellent performance of the railroad stocks, and to a lesser extent by some of the trucking charts. The keys here imo are the shipper charts FDX and UPS. They hold the key and are at one of those inflection points where the move over the next months will be decided by their next s-t move. Also, watch CHRW. It peeked out to new ATH during past two weeks. That starts to print below $56 and it was a headfake imo. MMM: The GE report caught everyone off guard, even the boss it seems. MMM reports on the 24th and HON this Fri, the 18th. MMM has banged up against the $29.60 level 3 or 4 times these last few months, although it really is just rising jello on the weeklies. Another run about $29 here and she'll bust through. Still, it would have to get above about $30.50 before it would look bullish in the longer-term. EMC: A beaten down tech. If the trash gets bought, it is a signal. It's been months in slightly down jello and is trying to breakout right now. I'll be watching that very closely to see if it can get over about $15.50. SBUX has a similar looking down sloping jello and tried to breakout a couple of weeks ago. Now it is back near the lows.