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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: illyia who wrote (289)	4/14/2008 8:13:17 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 3209

What I said was "but it always comes in any decent countertrend rally", not "it always comes". Take a look at the most crushing down waves in history and you will find some wonderful sharp rallies that were accompanied by renewed bullishness. By definition this must be true. Sure, there are rogue waves and left-field surprises, but there is no use trying to trade that or plan your life around it, as it's so rare. All we can do is trade the odds. I've read the books, studied the numbers, and hibernated with some serious bears now and then over the last 10 years. Sure, we might be in the big "Grand Supercycle" correction, some Kondratieff cold-ass winter that will see our way of life hanging in the balance. Is systemic risk higher now than in any business cycles since the 1920's? Yes. So what are we supposed to do? All we know is that the risk is high. We must conserve capital and use hard assets over fiat. I'll trade both sides along the way. I don't see it here, but if the charts indicate that we would likely be going to new highs, I would get long. It's that simple for me. Cheers